mariushobbhahn

1951Joined Dec 2020

Bio

I'm currently doing a Ph.D. in ML at the International Max-Planck research school in Tübingen. My focus is on Bayesian ML and I'm exploring its role in AI alignment but I'm also exploring non-Bayesian approaches. I want to become an AI safety researcher/engineer. If you think I should work for you, please reach out.

For more see https://www.mariushobbhahn.com/aboutme/

I subscribe to Crocker's Rules

Comments
83

Usually just asking a bunch of simple questions like "What problem is your research addressing?", "why is this a good approach to the problem?", "why is this problem relevant to AI safety?", "How does your approach attack the problem?", etc. 

Just in a normal conversation that doesn't feel like an interrogation. 

Interesting perspective. Hadn't thought about it this way but seems like a plausible scenario to me. 

Interesting. Let's hope they are right and we are able to replace fossils with renewables fast enough. 

I don't have any strong opinions on that. There is a good chance I'm just uninformed and the IEA is right. My intuition is just that countries don't like it if their energy gets more expensive, so they'll keep digging for coal, oil or gas as long as renewables aren't cheaper.

No, I think there is a phase where everyone wished they had renewables but they can't yet get them so they still use fossil fuels. I think energy production will stay roughly constant or increase but the way we produce it will change slower than we would have hoped. 

I don't think we will have a serious decline in energy production. 

I think narrow AIs won't cause mass unemployment but more general AIs will. I also think that objectively that isn't a problem at this point anymore because AIs can do all the work but I think it will take at least another decade that humans can accept that. 

The narrative that work is good because you contribute something to society and so on is pretty deeply engrained, so I guess lots of people won't be happy after being automated away. 

I'm bullish on Solar+storage. But I think that it will take a while to adapt the grid, so I think it will take at least a decade before we can even think about phasing out fossils. 

I think narrow AIs won't cause massive unemployment but the more general they get, the harder it will be to justify using humans instead of ChatGPT++

I think education will have to change a lot because students could literally let their homework be done entirely by ChatGPT and get straight A's all the time. 

I guess it's something like "until class X you're not allowed to use a calculator, and then after that you can" but for AI. So it will be normal that you can just print an essay in 5 seconds similar to how you can do complicated math that would usually take hours on paper in 5 seconds on a calculator. 

Yeah. I kept the post mostly to AI but I also think that other technological breakthroughs are a possibility. Didn't want to make it even longer ;)

I think you could write more of these stories for other kinds of disruptions and I'd be interested in reading them.

Thanks for pointing out the mistake. I fixed the "century" occurrences. 

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