Bio

Participation
3



You can send me a message anonymously here: https://www.admonymous.co/will

Comments
409

By "messaged" do you mean you got an email, Facebook notification, or something else?

I'm not sure. I think you are the first person I heard of saying they got matched. When I asked in the EA Facebook group for this on December 15th if anyone got matched, all three people who responded (including myself) reported that they were double-charged for their December 15th donations. Initially we assumed the second receipt was a match, but then we saw that Facebook had actually just charged us twice. I haven't heard anything else about the match since then and just assumed I didn't get matched.

Throughout the story I was wondering why Larry was advocating for this at a town meeting rather than finding someone to help turn his idea into a reality (like a Sarah Fletcher or an entrepreneurial friend), so I'm glad that was the punchline.

I felt a [...] profound sense of sadness at the thought of 100,000 chickens essentially being a rounding error compared to the overall size of the factory farming industry.

Yes, about 9 billion chickens are killed each year in the US alone, or about 1 million per hour. So 100,000 chickens are killed every 6 minutes in the US (and every 45 seconds globally). Still, it's a huge tragedy.

I only play-tested it once (in-person with three people with one laptop plus one phone editing the spreadsheet) and the most annoying aspect of my implementation of it was having to record one's forecasts in a spreadsheet from a phone. If everyone had a laptop or their own device it'd be easier. But I made the spreadsheet to handle games (or teams?) of up to 8 people, so I think it could work well for that.

I don't operate with this mindset frequently, but thinking back to some of the highest impact things I've done I'm realizing now that I did those things because I had this attitude. So I'm inclined to think it's good advice.

I love Wits & Wagers! You might be interested in Wits & Calibration, a variant I made during the pandemic in which players forecast the probability that each numeric range is 'correct' (closest to the true answer without being greater than it) rather than bet on the range that is most probable (as in the Party Edition) or highest EV given payout-ratios (regular Wits & Wagers). The spreadsheet I made auto-calculates all scores, so players need only enter their forecasts and check a box next to the correct answer.

I created the variant because I think it makes the game higher skill. For example, rather than just bet on a range that you know is the most likely to be correct, you can be rewarded for knowing whether it's 60% likely or 80% likely to be correct, unlike in classic Wits & Wagers where everyone would bet on the range simply by knowing it's >50% likely to be correct and get an equal reward.

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