REVIEW BY: DARONG PATRICK BOT (EA PLATEAU STATE UNIVERSITY, BOKKOS)
J. D Rutherford's popular statement “we are the architects of our own demise”, some literature quoted it “we are the architects of our own destruction”. The statement best describes the ideas raised by Toby Ord in his sensational book “The Precipice”. Humans created existential threats and risks to themselves. From the creation of the world, humanity has never experienced this particular stage we created for ourselves. The political science theory that is applicable to the situation is the “Social Contract Theory”. The proponents of the theory described life in the state of nature as solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short, according to Thomas Hobbes in his work “Leviathan”. To Hobbes, man is naturally selfish and in an attempt to satisfy his lust, he comes in conflict with other men. Hobbes posits that man’s most priced value is his life and self preservation. In the light of this, he chooses to give up some of his natural rights to some superior authorities who will ensure there was peace in the society.
J. J. Rousseau state of nature is the beginning of human society. Rousseau differs from Hobbes and John Locke in his view on the state of nature. In his own view, the state of nature does not depict a barbaric state as painted by Hobbes, though, it is also not as optimistic as portrayed by Locke. Rather, Rousseau sees it as a state where man is contented, easily satisfied and had little needs they craved. At the initial stage man was contented with what he had. He also cooperates with others for the common good. It was the emergence of private ownership of properties (that is) capitalism that distorted the system and brought about crisis. To move out of the conflict situation, it was reasoned that an organ (government/state) should be established to regulate the behaviors of men in the society and protect them from each other and from common enemies.
The major existential risk pointed out in chapter one is the 1662 Cuban Missile Crisis when humans arrived at nuclear annihilation. Ord argued and visualized history will never forget the long Cuban Missile Crisis at a time the world was still vulnerable. “The Precipice” described the level and point humanity has reached, the introduction of technological powers is capable of threatening human survival. After the second world war that claimed millions of lives in 1945, the world went to a cold war and ideological war, powerful regions and states developed more sophisticated weapons of massive destruction through technological advancement. Human existentialism is under threat because the world has biological, atomic, nuclear weapons of massive destruction. We are standing on the Precipice; a narrow and dangerous path where one mistake could lead to irreversible catastrophe. The states created guarded missiles and weapons for protection against enemies, but with a misguided governance, human existence could be threatened. Strong government exhibit powers and dominance on weaker sovereign states with less technological power to subdue the weaker state(s) to pressure over political and economic interest.
The second phase of the Precipice centered on a deep reflection geared towards humans personal efforts to curtail these existential risks posed on humans. It asked a critical question like; What can we do to prevent such catastrophes? The arguments enlisted in this phase of Ord’s work didn’t just center on the natural disasters such as: asteroid, volcanoes which can reduce human population on earth, but his cardinal position was on dangers that can destroy every person on earth. Some of the natural disasters take hundreds of years to occur and human or man made disasters destroy effectively. For over 100,000 years, humanity has survived on earth, the chances of death by natural occurrence per century is less than 1/10,000 and 1/100,000. Innovative technologies such as nuclear weapons, bio-weapons have no safety majors to humans. The deep long reflection emphasized on humans to plan in order to determine the future in the long run.
The major four technological risks mentioned by Ord are: nuclear wars, global warming, pandemics and artificial intelligence. Ord enunciate that there are existential risks that will come in future. These are pandemic, artificial intelligence and dystopian scenarios. Pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance Ebola and HIV. When pathogens escape, diseases spread. Pathogens can be allowed to escape by humans to cause a pandemic. One of the vital issues discussed in the Precipice by Ord that posed threats to existential risks was pandemics. The world has suffered and recovered from numerous pandemics. Take a critical example from the outbreaks of pandemics in Nigeria like the Ebola virus and COVID 19 virus and HIV/AIDs, misguided information and health communication was insufficient to guide the public on precautionary measures. In Nigerians, when the Ebola virus was first recorded, citizens were misinformed to drink and bathe with salt water. These resulted in more deaths than the virus killed. Those who were suffering with difficult health challenges, died because of inadequate health communication strategies. Pandemics can only be communicated through proper health communication channels, which must convey the message to the public in appropriate mediums.
Artificial intelligence the science and engineering of making intelligent systems. Artificial intelligence is in existence because of computers, though technological revolution has been a main source of modern prosperity and longevity, humans should be cautious of it’s potential dangers and hazards. The values of AI can not equate the values of humans. AI can be deceptive.
In conclusion, humanity is living through a uniquely dangerous period in history, that is the Precipice. It is a known fact that humans have achieved an extraordinary breakthrough in scientific and technical progress, our intuition has not kept pace with our power. In the 21st century, humans may determine to survive to realize its vast future potentials or whether to destroy itself through existential catastrophes. The human created catastrophes and risks is more dangerous than the natural risks.
