This first-of-its kind, multi-year biosecurity forecasting tournament was developed in partnership with pandemic preparedness non-profit Guarding Against Pandemics and the research and advocacy think tank the Institute for Progress. The Biosecurity Tournament has three aims: to map out the future biosecurity risk landscape, to help direct resource allocation to the highest-impact interventions, and to inform the distribution of attention and efforts — all with a focus on global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs).

The Metaculus Community’s forecasts will be shared with public health experts, informing their decision making and helping to mitigate future COVID-like risks. Guarding Against Pandemics has generously provided a $25,000 prize pool to support forecasting efforts.