I'd like to start giving people the option of commenting on shorter Cold Takes pieces (which I don't cross-post here or provide audio for). I'm going to use this post for that: I will generally leave a comment for each piece, and people can leave their comments as replies to that.
Hmm, interesting!
My guess still is that it matters how tangibly connected the activity is to the outcome. I think it matters a lot that filling out a spreadsheet for an insurance company for one’s actuarial job does not directly feed one’s children, even if the outcome is the same. This is similar to my intuition that jumping into a pond to save a drowning child probably feels more fulfilling than donating a large sum to Givewell recommended charities, even if the outcomes are fairly comparable. Even swimming around looking for drowning children and not finding them on most attempts but succeeding every now and then seems more intuitively fulfilling (but I might just be worse at simulating in my mind the long periods of failure than the brief moments of success).
I also think it matters whether one knows the people they are helping personally. I expect doctors to care less about helping their patients than a hunter-gather would care about gathering food for their family (and, to a lesser extent, their tribe). However, I would think it was more likely that your view was right than the one I expressed if doctors and social workers were less happy than other professionals in their income bracket (e.g. if actuaries were happier than doctors or accountants were happier than social workers).
The military is an interesting case and how informative I'd find military personnel happiness depends on who we're talking about. I suspect military leaders are happier than average and would change my mind if they weren't. I suspect lower-ranked soldiers in peacetime would be happier than the average person (I'd guess they would be unhappy during intense periods of training that are intended to simulate combat but I'd also guess that most of the time, they won't be in combat-simulating training). I would be surprised if soldiers during combat or intense training periods that try to simulate combat were happier than the average person because the physical conditions seem so extreme (I'd guess much more extreme than the everyday experience of a hunter-gatherer).
I suspect voluntary retirees would replace work with more meaningful activities (like doing pro bono/volunteer work or spending time helping their family and friends) so I am not sure how much them being happier would change my mind. I would be surprised if voluntary retirees were happier if it was also true that they did not spend much more time helping friends and family or on altruistic endeavours.