I'd like to start giving people the option of commenting on shorter Cold Takes pieces (which I don't cross-post here or provide audio for). I'm going to use this post for that: I will generally leave a comment for each piece, and people can leave their comments as replies to that.
I'm not sure you've quite nailed the central claim of the book. Which is fair, they don't make it clear, and I don't think the reviews did a good job of making it clear either.
I think it's more along the lines of:
This seems plausible to me.
They also make the following claim:
This is more debatable. But I don't think it's very important (with regards to a discussion on the value of the book).
Why? Because they only state this claim due to the fact that this is why they care about the truth of the first claim. However, I expect most people on this forum already agree that value lock in is bad and, therefore, don't need to buy this second claim to find value in the book.
Instead, to determine the value of the book (provided you already buy the first claim AND think lock in is bad), one ought to investigate claims such as the following (made in the conclusion):