TLYCS has wrapped up the grass-roots, university focused pamphleting pilot that we posted about earlier this year. The entire writeup can be viewed here, but the major results (taken from the introduction) are given below. I'm happy to answer any questions in the comments, and if anyone wants to view the full data set we collected, I can talk with the folks at TLYCS about getting it to you. Thanks again for the helpful comments and critique you all provided at the outset of this pilot, and hopefully these results will be useful to someone down the line.
The Life You Can Save (TLYCS) ran a test-pilot for a grass roots pamphleting program during Spring of 2015. On five separate outings during May and June, roughly 3500 pamphlets were handed out to students on Los Angeles area university campuses. The metrics of interest for the pilot were the number of visitors to the TLYCS website generated by the pamphlets, and the associated cost per visitor.
In post-pilot analysis, the estimated acquisition rate of website visitors per-pamphlet for these outings was between 0.6 % and 1.1 %. This translates to a $125 to $70 cost per-website visitor at the $0.75 price-per-unit TLYCS paid for the pamphlets. However, this cost could be straightforwardly reduced to between $12 to $6 per-website visitor by more economically sourcing the pamphlets.
There is reason to believe that a more focused, strategic pamphlet design, along with offering an incentive in the pamphlet, could have driven up the acquisition rate. However, even a doubling of the rate would not have produced a per-visitor cost on par with TLYCS’s online advertising efforts. Therefore a decision was made in the wake of the pilot to discontinue the program.
FYI, the previous posts on this topic are:
http://effective-altruism.com/ea/dg/tlycs_pamphleting_pilot_program/
http://effective-altruism.com/ea/eh/tlycs_pamphleting_pilot_plan/
Thanks for writing this up, very interesting!
The cost presumably doesn't include the volunteer time to hand out the pamphlets? I would guess the time cost associated with pamphleting is much more than the time cost associated with online advertising, and that the difference there is even more significant than the pure monetary difference. (Particularly given that it sounds like there was quite a lot of coordination effort, as well as the actual handing out leaflets.)
On the other hand, if someone takes the trouble to go on the website from having been handed a leaflet, they seem plausibly much more likely to take further action than if they just clicked on a link online. Looking into the donations to top charities, as Zach suggests, could be indicative here (though I guess it would be very hard!).
Yeah, one of the main "unmeasurables" of the pilot was how much more of an impression a pamphlet, handed out by a real volunteer, can have on someone over an online add. This goes into the "touchpoint" theory, where it may take multiple exposures to an idea before someone bites; and maybe getting a pamphlet is a much stronger "touchpoint" than seeing an online add. I personally think that getting handed a pamphlet by a non-paid volunteer is a really powerful thing; and that's the reason that (again personally) I think that it would be great to see someone in the EA movement give a pamphleting program another shot, along the lines I sketched in the lessons learned (branded on EA, including multiple organizations, with a stronger, repeated ask).
We ran cost numbers including volunteer time and pamphlet development expenses, but I decided to ignore those for the final writeup, mainly because; the way we envisioned the program, the leaflets would be handed out on a volunteer basis by college students not paid TLYCS staff; and the cost of developing the pamphlets would amortize to a minimal effect over the lifetime of an ongoing pamphleting program. It's definitely a debatable decision though.