Gemini Pro (the medium-sized version of the model) is now available to interact with via Bard.
Here’s a fun and impressive demo video showing off Gemini’s multi-modal capabilities:
[Edit, Dec. 8 at 5:54am EST: This demo video is potentially misleading.]
How Gemini compares to GPT-4, according to Google DeepMind:
I think the update here should be pretty small. I'm unsure if you disagree. I would also think the update should be pretty small if gemini is notably better than GPT4, but not wildly better. It seems plausible to me that people would (incorrectly) have a large update toward shorter timelines if gemini was merely substantially better than GPT4, but we don't have to make the same mistake in the other direction.
It's worth noting there is some asymmetry in the likely updates with a high probability of a mild negative update on near term AI and a low probability of a large positive update toward powerful near term AI. E.g., even if google were to explode and never release a better LLM than gemini, this would be a relatively smaller update than if they were to release transformatively powerful AI.