Edit 1/29: Funding is back, baby!
Crossposted from my blog.
(This could end up being the most important thing I’ve ever written. Please like and restack it—if you have a big blog, please write about it).
A mother holds her sick baby to her chest. She knows he doesn’t have long to live. She hears him coughing—those body-wracking coughs—that expel mucus and phlegm, leaving him desperately gasping for air. He is just a few months old. And yet that’s how old he will be when he dies.
The aforementioned scene is likely to become increasingly common in the coming years. Fortunately, there is still hope.
Trump recently signed an executive order shutting off almost all foreign aid. Most terrifyingly, this included shutting off the PEPFAR program—the single most successful foreign aid program in my lifetime. PEPFAR provides treatment and prevention of HIV and AIDS—it has saved about 25 million people since its implementation in 2001, despite only taking less than 0.1% of the federal budget. Every single day that it is operative, PEPFAR supports:
> * More than 222,000 people on treatment in the program collecting ARVs to stay healthy;
> * More than 224,000 HIV tests, newly diagnosing 4,374 people with HIV – 10% of whom are pregnant women attending antenatal clinic visits;
> * Services for 17,695 orphans and vulnerable children impacted by HIV;
> * 7,163 cervical cancer screenings, newly diagnosing 363 women with cervical cancer or pre-cancerous lesions, and treating 324 women with positive cervical cancer results;
> * Care and support for 3,618 women experiencing gender-based violence, including 779 women who experienced sexual violence.
The most important thing PEPFAR does is provide life-saving anti-retroviral treatments to millions of victims of HIV. More than 20 million people living with HIV globally depend on daily anti-retrovirals, including over half a million children. These children, facing a deadly illness in desperately poor countries, are now going
I think the update here should be pretty small. I'm unsure if you disagree. I would also think the update should be pretty small if gemini is notably better than GPT4, but not wildly better. It seems plausible to me that people would (incorrectly) have a large update toward shorter timelines if gemini was merely substantially better than GPT4, but we don't have to make the same mistake in the other direction.
It's worth noting there is some asymmetry in the likely updates with a high probability of a mild negative update on near term AI and a low probability of a large positive update toward powerful near term AI. E.g., even if google were to explode and never release a better LLM than gemini, this would be a relatively smaller update than if they were to release transformatively powerful AI.