TLDR: Take the population ethics quiz here: https://mdickens.me/pop-ethics/
Population ethics is an oft-overlooked subfield within ethics. Many people hold views that they don't realize contradict each other, or that have strange implications that they wouldn't endorse if they thought about it more.
Not just that—population ethics is a BIG DEAL. A lot of ethical decisions hinge on how you think about changes in future populations....
A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.Â
I’m very grateful to the man...
I am disappointed to hear GiveDirectly is using matching fundraisers, especially without discussions of the associated moral hazards (there is a small footnote acknowledging that the matching is probably illusory, but like, that's not shown to the donor showing up on the frontpage and also ultimately doesn't really talk about the deceptive aspects).Â
I think matching fundraisers tend to generally be dishonest by overstating the counterfactualness of a matching fund. See this old post for a lot of the standard arguments for that: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a2gYyTnAP36TxqdQp/matching-donation-fundraisers-can-be-harmfully-dishonestÂ
See also this Jeff Kauffman post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hQtayqi3r6bo3EPoh/the-counterfactual-validity-of-donation-matchingÂ
Or this old GiveWell post: https://blog.givewell.org/2011/12/15/why-you-shouldnt-let-donation-matching-affect-your-giving/Â
Sophisticated donors hopefully know to ignore "matching" pitches (but if not, it's certainly helpful to spread awareness that it's basically just a marketing gimmick).
But my sense is that relatively few people are sophisticated donors who could accurately be described as "allocating their charity budget". Rather, I model most people's philanthropic motivations as unstable impulses that come and go as emotions hit them. Marketing gimmicks can be very helpful for exciting such donors, and motivating them to do something good rather than nothing.
If anything like my model is accurate, then asking effective charities to forego marketing gimmicks seems like a bad idea. It just means that the unstable impulses of the hoi polloi will be exclusively activated by less-effective charities that have no such anti-marketing scruples.
(If we could secure a world where no-one engaged in marketing gimmicks, that would indeed be preferable. But I take it that we can't secure such an outcome. All we could achieve is unilateral disarmament, which makes things overall worse, not better.)
I agree that many people aren't very smart about their donation choices, though I would be surprised if it's worth the tradeoff to alienate and engage in a more deceptive relationship with the people who are being smarter about their donation choices, and an article on donation matching that doesn't go into that at the very least seems incomplete.
In as much as the EA community has norms or standards by which it evaluates the behavior of people, I think "deceptiveness about the cost-effectiveness of donations" seems like one standard that makes sense for us to apply. Maybe it makes sense for GiveDirectly to do this (though I am skeptical), but that shouldn't deflate me being disappointed, and it of course makes it less likely that I recommend people donate to GiveDirectly, especially people who aren't as careful about donation decisions.
Relatedly, when I worked in ad agencies I'd always tell my clients to avoid putting their products on discount. The research I've read shows they:
1. don't impact long term sales
2. tend to just attract people who would've bought anyway (but at a lower price)
3. get people used to buying at a lower price
"a brand's normal-price buyers are a major source of its volume from price promotions"Â https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321247500_Buying_Brands_at_Both_Regular_Price_and_on_Promotion_over_Time
I think matching could be like discounts / price promotions (i'd guess at ~ 50% this is happening); you're just moving money around different timelines and having other negative effectives on your brand.
How do you square this with the experience of J.C. Penney, who, after eliminating sales and instead choosing to offer "everyday low prices", experienced a 20% drop in sales? It's certainly tempting to believe that discounts and other such unnecessary promotions don't work, but it seems that sales do to some extent stimulate, well, sales.
See https://hbr.org/2012/05/can-there-ever-be-a-fair-price.Â