The likelihood of a perfectly synchronised hybrid attack – combining targeted grid disruptions with AI-driven disinformation during a moment of democratic pressure – is reasonably low-probability in any single year. Yet the underlying components exist: AI-assisted mapping of infrastructure vulnerabilities; Spamouflage-style networks experimenting with generative AI; and recent examples of opportunistic interference during crises such as the Spanish floods, or the 2024 US and Taiwanese elections.

This scenario is not forecasting but a stress-test: a deliberately constructed "perfect storm" designed to reveal how vulnerable mid-sized democracies – those with exposed infrastructure and polarised information ecosystems – could become if governance fails to keep pace with emerging AI capability and risk. By integrating a realistic cyber-physical disruption with a coordinated influence campaign, and timing both to coincide with particular political strain, the exercise exposes where current institutions could buckle under compounded stress.

https://gamma.app/docs/A-Two-Prongued-Kill-Chain-AI-Enabled-Infrastructure-Disruption-Di-rqokmqa3i969n9e?mode=present#card-nvoumwumqapenpi