Ajeya Cotra, author of the influential biological anchors report and Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy, has updated in the last 2 years: her median TAI timeline is now 2040. Read or at least skim the linked post; it's good.

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+1

(consider renaming to "Ajeya's TAI median timeline [...]", or to "Ajeya's TAI median timeline shortened from 2050 to 2040 (~15% probability by 2030)", or something like that, to avoid the impression they think we're ok until 2040)

The original title included "median," but I removed it because it made the title so long that "2040" and the paperclip icon didn't fit on the frontpage (where titles are limited to a single line)! I thought "2040" and the link were more important than "median," so I settled for "median" in the body only.