Just discovered this interesting research project by START, UoMaryland. Maybe a useful input paper for your projects. 

A short abstract is following: 

The Anatomizing Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries Project sought to improve understanding of, and more effectively identify, perpetrators and potential perpetrators of attacks employing CB agents. The project’s objectives included:

1)  identifying indicators of VNSA’s potentially changing CB predilections and capabilities;

2)  improving our understanding of potential non-state attackers by identifying salient characteristics of past CB

adversaries, including the linkage between their strategic concerns and their targets and tactics; and

3)  embedding these findings into a Bayesian analytical tool that can assist policy makers preparing responses to this phenomenon.

The ultimate goal was to enhance the capability of defense practitioners to protect the United States by including more detailed specifications of the threat component in risk assessment calculations, in addition to the already well-developed vulnerability and consequence elements. Although the project’s focus was on ideologically motivated violence, the research also provided some insight into criminal use of CB materials, which can also significantly impact public security.

Binder, Markus, and Gary Ackerman. 2014. "Anatomizing Chemical Biological Non-State Adversaries." https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/STARTResearchBrief_Anatomizing.pdf





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