As EA moves towards more uncertain interventions, expected value calculations become more uncertain, more prone to motivated reasoning and more prone to self-serving biases.

Here are 3 key ways we could protect against self-serving biases and other forms of motivated reasoning in expected value calculations:

- Have two (or more) individuals, or groups,
*independently*calculate the expected value of a decision and compare results - In expected value calculations,
**identify a theoretical cost****at which the intervention would no longer be approximately maximising expected value from the resources** - Keep in mind that EA aims to make decisions that
*approximately maximise*expected value from a set of resources, rather than just make decisions which just have net positive expected value