This question is on my list of things I should ask but think are too dumb to.
A lot of people have estimates and forecasts on when they think a transformative artificial intelligent/superintelligent system will come into existence. Yet it doesn't seem clear how they come to these estimates.
I tend to differ to others who are a lot more senior and have much more expertise simply because that's the easy way out. But I'd like to try and get a better sense of what the process of doing this looks like.
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Ah, thanks for sharing! I assume the Carlsmith report is this - https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353?