Forecasting and political judgment

• Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophe, keeping your politics secret, and when experts know more than you (Podcast - 1 hour 30 mins.)
• Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided (5 mins.)
• Forecasting and predictions
  • Predicting what intervention will produce a positive impact using only expert consensus or deductive reasoning can be hard. Prediction markets and forecasting tournaments pose a potential solution. (Video - 1 hour)
• Books on forecasting, e.g. How to Measure Anything or Business Forecasting