Ticket prices increase Sept 8.

Forecasting Festival — Hosted by Manifold

Manifest 2023 is the first in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community. Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Dylan Matthews, Zvi Mowshowitz, Katja Grace, Dwarkesh Patel, Aella, Tarek Mansour, Shayne Coplan, and more!

More info & buy tickets: manifestconference.net

WHEN: Sept 22-24

WHERE: Berkeley, CA

WHO: Everyone in the forecasting, EA, and LW communities. If you're reading this, you're invited!

Join the Discord here :)

Cosponsored by Kalshi! Other sponsors: Polymarket & Sovereign.

Why should I come?

Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.

Here are extra reasons to come:

• you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/fun/cool/rational/intriguing/etc
• you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
• you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/recruit hires/see what’s out there)
• you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our special guests
• you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn

• …or if you like memes?

A Day at Manifest

Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:

10-11 — Opening session

11-12 — Fireside chat with Robin Hanson

12-1 — Lunch & mingling

1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!

2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)

3-4 — Break: relax, vibe, unwind, chill, destress, etc

4-5 — Manifold Founders Panel with Austin Chen, Stephen & James Grugett

5-6 — Games & markets: chess, poker, and prediction markets!

6-7 — Dinner & mingling

7-8 — Workshop: “Functions as Forecasts” with Ozzie Gooen

8-12 — Murder She Bet: a murder mystery + a low-tech prediction market = fun!

(Final schedule out soon)

Where can I buy tickets?

Buy tickets & check the most up-to-date info on the Manifest website! Tickets are free for students and employees of forecasting organizations. Prices increase Sept 8!