Edited: From a post requesting for questions to answering these questions
EAs interested in longtermist institutional reform have quite frequently mentioned Singapore's Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) as one such model.^
I had the opportunity to speak to some staff from the CSF. I have edited this post to quickly respond to the few questions that EA folks had:
Q: I'm interested in whether CSF views itself as mostly focused on Singapore's long-term future, or whether it might play a broader role as a sort of intermediary or intellectual clearing-house between the West (e.g. US/UK EA/Rationalist culture) and East Asia (e.g. China), in terms of considering global long-term issues...I'm curious whether Singapore's CSF might help West and East learn more about each other's long-termist perspectives, plans, and concerns -- in a spirit of genuine mutual respect rather than Western intellectual imperialism.
(I took the liberty to reframe the question as whether the CSF engages and shares its thinking with international counterparts, and convene forum attended by international delegates.)
My impression: The CSF does share its thinking publicly online, and with some international partners. Staff also attend some international Futures fora. However the intent had been to better understand the Futures that Singapore could face, by learning from global perspectives. Insofar as CSF's insights are credible to both the US and China, it could be helpful to all interested parties.
Q: As futures are inherently quite unpredictable, how do you prepare for it?
A: Hard question. One way is through scenarios where you can prepare for the most likely one while hedging against others, or choose the most robust responses. There is also alot of preparation that can be done based on what are somewhat predictable trends such as demographic changes, climate change etc.
^See: https://www.cser.ac.uk/resources/representation-future-generations/ and https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Lcw8xdMfjNusbpbd/foresight-for-governments-singapore-s-long-termist-policy
Axby - glad you're doing this! Singapore is such an exciting city-state, and seems very forward-looking.
I'm interested in whether CSF views itself as mostly focused on Singapore's long-term future, or whether it might play a broader role as a sort of intermediary or intellectual clearing-house between the West (e.g. US/UK EA/Rationalist culture) and East Asia (e.g. China), in terms of considering global long-term issues.
So far, it seems like EA-style thinking has had quite limited impact in Singapore, China, South Korea, Japan, etc. Partly this is due to language barriers, culture barriers, and political/ideological differences. But partly it might have been due to EA/Rationalist culture just not making a sustained, focused effort at outreach -- and at respectful, mutual understanding. (For example, many EAs still seem to demonize China, and treat the geopolitical AI arms races as something that the US really needs to win, to 'save humanity from totalitarianism'.) So, I'm curious whether Singapore's CSF might help West and East learn more about each other's long-termist perspectives, plans, and concerns -- in a spirit of genuine mutual respect rather than Western intellectual imperialism.
Hi Geoffrey, thanks for the question! I have amended the post to respond to your question based on what I got from the CSF staff :)