You are invited to participate in Metaculus's FRO-Casting Tournament, an exciting pilot project in partnership with The Federation of American Scientists that harnesses predictions to help assess impact, deliver feedback, and inform the allocation of $50 million to ambitious research proposals handpicked by Convergent Research.
There is a wealth of untapped scientific knowledge at the intersection of research and engineering: Industry doesn't pursue it because it's unlikely to be profitable. Academia doesn't pursue it because it's unlikely to be publishable. Enter Focused Research Organizations (FROs), non-profits modeled after startups that address well-defined technology challenges that are unlikely to be solved by industry or academia.
By sharing your insights, you'll join forces with Metaculus Pro Forecasters and 25 subject matter experts to help generate:
- Risk-reward profiles of each FRO proposal
- Actionable feedback for proposal authors
- Valuable data on forecasting's role in the scientific review process
Learn more about the specific proposals below. We recommend reading each proposal's attached forecasting guide before getting started.
Or, jump right into forecasting here.
"Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers' catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again." Read the full research proposal.
Proposal Forecasting Guide
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"Wearable health electronics are now ubiquitous, but continuous molecular monitoring is only widely available for glucose. Decades of research have expanded continuous monitoring to other molecules, but these techniques are restricted to research labs and remain disconnected from daily human use. We propose a platform to translate and distribute these emerging technologies, enabling the mapping of the time-varying human metabolome and the design of closed-loop devices for personalized health." Read the full research proposal.
Proposal Forecasting Guide
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"Research and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source." Read the full research proposal.
Proposal Forecasting Guide
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"Systematically sequencing the genome and studying the function of genes from all viruses that infect a set of model bacteria with significant scientific, biotechnological, and human health relevance will enable the development of phage-gene libraries that can in turn enable the faster development of genetic tools for advancing molecular biology." Read the full research proposal.
Proposal Forecasting Guide
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"Measuring how neurons integrate their inputs and respond to them is key to understanding the impressive and complex behavior of humans and animals. However, a complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) has not been achieved in any animal. Undertaking the complete measurement of IOFs in the model system C. elegans could refine critical methods and discover principles that will generalize across neuroscience." Read the full research proposal.
Proposal Forecasting Guide
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