This is a special post for quick takes by Y. Chiu. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
Curated and popular this week
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Note: I am not a malaria expert. This is my best-faith attempt at answering a question that was bothering me, but this field is a large and complex field, and I’ve almost certainly misunderstood something somewhere along the way.
Summary
While the world made incredible progress in reducing malaria cases from 2000 to 2015, the past 10 years have seen malaria cases stop declining and start rising. I investigated potential reasons behind this increase through reading the existing literature and looking at publicly available data, and I identified three key factors explaining the rise:
1. Population Growth: Africa's population has increased by approximately 75% since 2000. This alone explains most of the increase in absolute case numbers, while cases per capita have remained relatively flat since 2015.
2. Stagnant Funding: After rapid growth starting in 2000, funding for malaria prevention plateaued around 2010.
3. Insecticide Resistance: Mosquitoes have become increasingly resistant to the insecticides used in bednets over the past 20 years. This has made older models of bednets less effective, although they still have some effect. Newer models of bednets developed in response to insecticide resistance are more effective but still not widely deployed.
I very crudely estimate that without any of these factors, there would be 55% fewer malaria cases in the world than what we see today. I think all three of these factors are roughly equally important in explaining the difference.
Alternative explanations like removal of PFAS, climate change, or invasive mosquito species don't appear to be major contributors.
Overall this investigation made me more convinced that bednets are an effective global health intervention.
Introduction
In 2015, malaria rates were down, and EAs were celebrating. Giving What We Can posted this incredible gif showing the decrease in malaria cases across Africa since 2000:
Giving What We Can said that
> The reduction in malaria has be
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Cross-posted from my blog.
Contrary to my carefully crafted brand as a weak nerd, I go to a local CrossFit gym a few times a week. Every year, the gym raises funds for a scholarship for teens from lower-income families to attend their summer camp program. I don’t know how many Crossfit-interested low-income teens there are in my small town, but I’ll guess there are perhaps 2 of them who would benefit from the scholarship. After all, CrossFit is pretty niche, and the town is small.
Helping youngsters get swole in the Pacific Northwest is not exactly as cost-effective as preventing malaria in Malawi. But I notice I feel drawn to supporting the scholarship anyway. Every time it pops in my head I think, “My money could fully solve this problem”. The camp only costs a few hundred dollars per kid and if there are just 2 kids who need support, I could give $500 and there would no longer be teenagers in my town who want to go to a CrossFit summer camp but can’t. Thanks to me, the hero, this problem would be entirely solved. 100%.
That is not how most nonprofit work feels to me.
You are only ever making small dents in important problems
I want to work on big problems. Global poverty. Malaria. Everyone not suddenly dying. But if I’m honest, what I really want is to solve those problems. Me, personally, solve them. This is a continued source of frustration and sadness because I absolutely cannot solve those problems.
Consider what else my $500 CrossFit scholarship might do:
* I want to save lives, and USAID suddenly stops giving $7 billion a year to PEPFAR. So I give $500 to the Rapid Response Fund. My donation solves 0.000001% of the problem and I feel like I have failed.
* I want to solve climate change, and getting to net zero will require stopping or removing emissions of 1,500 billion tons of carbon dioxide. I give $500 to a policy nonprofit that reduces emissions, in expectation, by 50 tons. My donation solves 0.000000003% of the problem and I feel like I have f
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> How the dismal science can help us end the dismal treatment of farm animals
By Martin Gould
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Note: This post was crossposted from the Open Philanthropy Farm Animal Welfare Research Newsletter by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.
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This year we’ll be sharing a few notes from my colleagues on their areas of expertise. The first is from Martin. I’ll be back next month. - Lewis
In 2024, Denmark announced plans to introduce the world’s first carbon tax on cow, sheep, and pig farming. Climate advocates celebrated, but animal advocates should be much more cautious. When Denmark’s Aarhus municipality tested a similar tax in 2022, beef purchases dropped by 40% while demand for chicken and pork increased.
Beef is the most emissions-intensive meat, so carbon taxes hit it hardest — and Denmark’s policies don’t even cover chicken or fish. When the price of beef rises, consumers mostly shift to other meats like chicken. And replacing beef with chicken means more animals suffer in worse conditions — about 190 chickens are needed to match the meat from one cow, and chickens are raised in much worse conditions.
It may be possible to design carbon taxes which avoid this outcome; a recent paper argues that a broad carbon tax would reduce all meat production (although it omits impacts on egg or dairy production). But with cows ten times more emissions-intensive than chicken per kilogram of meat, other governments may follow Denmark’s lead — focusing taxes on the highest emitters while ignoring the welfare implications.
Beef is easily the most emissions-intensive meat, but also requires the fewest animals for a given amount. The graph shows climate emissions per tonne of meat on the right-hand side, and the number of animals needed to produce a kilogram of meat on the left. The fish “lives lost” number varies significantly by
Culture against EA?
I was born and raised in an Asian metropolitan city, historically capitalistic. I have decided to write and contest the economy-driven model in my city where people are the means to an end - a robust economy, my question is what such a goal is for then if the people put pleasure over any consideration for the people in other places who are suffering? People seem to fail to acknowledge that the world is one village, so would a government choose to assist a country in crisis even if this requires knowledge transfer or financial assistance? I see a government that puts politics above people and I cannot do anything but choose what I believe - just only few pieces of wisdom I found useful in my entire life up to this point in time. Individuals can choose to be altruistic themselves and choose a country of similar values, or will they be able to change an entire culture (mine that is collective and meat-loving)? This is a topic open for discussion- what do you think people can do in a society that is capitalist and internally collective to be altruistic? How to deal with traditions that go against EA values in your family and society?
This is indeed a thought-provoking question.
While I'm not an economics expert, my perspective leans towards the idea that capitalism, at its core, is driven by profits. However, what becomes crucial is how organizations, essentially run by people, choose to utilize those profits. Take Patagonia, for instance, which allocates 98% of its profits to address climate change and protect underdeveloped land. It highlights that the impact on society is more about the decisions made by the people within the system rather than inherent flaws in the system itself. Unfortunately, the system has been flawed from the beginning, and money, rather than being a tool for positive change, is often wielded as a weapon.
Addressing cultural traditions that may clash with Effective Altruism (EA) values, I'm relatively new to EA, but I find it aligns well with the practice of tithing in the SDA church. I'm intrigued by your mention of cultural traditions that go against Effective Altruism (EA) values. Could you provide more details on specific traditions you have in mind? I've encountered challenges in aligning with other EA causes, particularly those related to animals, given my everyday experiences, like literally seeing chickens crossing the road all the time. It's a reminder that life's complexities vary for everyone. Nevertheless, what I appreciate about EA is its accountability, allowing me to ensure that my financial contributions are making a positive impact. Importantly, EA doesn't restrict how one chooses to allocate money and resources. In the end, 'Each one must give as he has decided in his heart, not reluctantly or under compulsion, for God loves a cheerful giver' - 2 Corithians 9:7.
Thanks for your clarifying question. In my city, people tend to value meat consumption - often as a culture related to god worshipping but no one ever questions why. In my city Hong Kong, waste goes to landfills and we are way behind other developed economies in measures such as recycling mainly because of a dense population. My perspective on politics go above the city onto a global level. Comparatively we are a wealthy city BUT the gap between the rich and the poor is big. In this Chinese culture, wealth accumulation is an honour that we keep wealth to ourselves, even at the expense of our fellows when it comes to business. During Chinese New Year, adults give money to children but they will never promote EA values like how to use money for global public goods. It is a culture that values individual achievement. I wonder how much time it takes to embed EA values into ours, or it is exclusive to those who were educated aboard since it is from the West. After all, EA is good in nature but may be confronted by political incentives - e.g., the conflicts between China and the West. BUT EA is not bound by countries.