Thanks so much for interacting with our work. For broader context around this report, it’s important to note that our approach from the outset was to build a series of models to show what you would need to believe for climate to be competitive with GHD. We therefore aren’t wedded to any particular SCC, and certainly can imagine different ways of approaching the problem.
To your specific points:
It is our view that Rennert is the best middle ground available from current peer-reviewed work. It sits between DICE-2023 (~$66) at the lower end, and estimates that incorporate growth effects likeBilal & Känzig (2024) (~$1,000+ at the same 2% discount rate) at the higher end. So, whilst we agree that some parameters in the GIVE model can be questioned in isolation (your discount rate and impact horizon critique seems reasonable), we feel it is still a sensible middle ground when taken as a whole, in comparison to other peer reviewed estimates currently available.
On adaptation, we feel less optimistic that the principle of ‘richer future = strong adaptation’ will hold for all people (e.g. those most exposed and least able to adapt in LMICs) or all sectors (e.g. agriculture), with the intersection between the two being particularly noteworthy. However, we accept this is genuinely uncertain and that reasonable people will weigh it differently.
Overall, we think our analysis at least supports the re-visiting of climate as a cost-effective cause area within the EA space and we appreciate the various thoughtful comments so far. Thank you for engaging!
Thanks so much for interacting with our work. For broader context around this report, it’s important to note that our approach from the outset was to build a series of models to show what you would need to believe for climate to be competitive with GHD. We therefore aren’t wedded to any particular SCC, and certainly can imagine different ways of approaching the problem.
To your specific points:
Overall, we think our analysis at least supports the re-visiting of climate as a cost-effective cause area within the EA space and we appreciate the various thoughtful comments so far. Thank you for engaging!