All of Jordan Pieters 🔸's Comments + Replies

Fantastic line-up and great job publishing it ahead of time!

4
James Herbert
Thanks!! It was a little goal of mine to get it out there before applications closed

Sorry for not being clearer, I meant just including the average scores :)

1
Jonah Woodward
No worries! I've included the average LTR now :)

Thanks for sharing this! Minor feedback: I'd like to see the survey data (eg. your average LTR) in text in addition to the graphs

3
Jonah Woodward
Hi Jordan, thanks for the feedback! Just to clarify, as I could interpret this in a few ways. Do you mean:  * Include the average ratings/scores within each figure (e.g., as with the New and Impactful Connections graph). * Include a written description of the data each graph contains. * Include a discussion of the data, such as possible implications/ lessons from what the graphs are showing? * Perhaps all of the above! * (Or something else)

Thanks Jan, I appreciate this comment. I'm on the EAG team, but responding with my personal thoughts. 

While it's true that we weight 1:1s heavily in assessing EAG, I don't think we're doing 'argmax prioritisation'—we still run talks, workshops, meetups, and ~1/4 of our team time goes to this. My read of your argument is that we're scoring things wrong and should give more consideration to the impact of group conversation. You're right that we don't currently explicitly track the impact of group conversations, which could mean we're missing significant... (read more)

Hi Taymon. I'm on the EAG team, and we're currently thinking about how we can improve meetups. I really appreciate you writing this up and sharing!

Great job on the event! I'm happy, both from a personal and impact-focused perspective, to see successful community building being done in Africa :)

Thanks Peter!
We were delayed in processing the Bay Area talk videos, but they'll be up in the next couple of days.

Exciting! Great to see Shrek making an appearance again.

I'm planning to post at least one thing for Draft Amnesty :)

By coincidence, I just came across this layer-hen genetics project that got funding from OP. I don't know much about the work or how promising it might be.

Luke, I took part in the GWWC ambassador program you ran in 2021 and had the pleasure of interacting with you on a few occasions. Your enthusiasm and thoughtfulness were a part of what pushed me to deepen my involvement in the EA community and eventually go on to do community building full-time. I really appreciate the work you've done to grow GWWC into an outstanding organisation. I wish you all the best!

In case you haven't seen it, here's a fireside chat we hosted with Ezra Klein in 2021. It might be cool to have him back at EAG though!

I share your inclination toward significant diversification. However, I find myself grappling with the question of whether there should be specific limits on this diversification. For instance , Open Philanthropy's approach seems to be "we diversify amongst worldviews we find plausible," but it's not clear to me what makes a worldview plausible. How seriously should we consider, for example, Nietzscheanism?

I agree that thinking from first principles can be great but, as I'm sure you're aware, it's super difficult! Do you have any thoughts on encouraging and/or facilitating more of this kind of thinking in the community?

2
arvomm
That's fair. The main thought that came to mind, which might not be useful, is developing the patience (eagerness to get to conclusions is often incompatible with the work required) and choosing your battles early. As you say, it can be hard and time-consuming. So people in the community asking narrower questions and focusing on one or two is probably the way to go. 

What do you think people in the EA community get wrong (or fail to sufficiently consider) when it comes to cause prioritisation?

3
arvomm
 I think another common pitfall is not working through things from first principles. I appreciate that it’s challenging and that any model is unrealistic. Still, BOTECs, pre-established boundaries between cause-areas/worldviews and our first instincts more broadly are likely to (and often do) lead us astray. Separately, I’m glad EA is so self-aware and worried about healthier epistemics, but I think we could do more to guard against echo-chamber thinking. 
6
Bob Fischer
Great (and difficult!) question, Jordan. I (Bob) am responding to this one for myself and not for the team; others can chime in as they see fit. The biggest issue I see in EA cause prioritization is overconfidence. It’s easy to think that because there are some prominent arguments for expected value maximization, we don’t need to run the numbers to see what happens if we have a modest level of risk aversion. It’s easy to think that because the future could be long and positive, the EV calculation is going to favor x-risk work. Etc. I’m not anti-EV; I’m not anti-x-risk. However, I think these are clear areas where people have been too quick to assume that they don’t need to run the numbers because it's obvious how they'll come out.

I'm glad this now exists, and the leadership seems great! My impression is that work on restricting the growth of the farmed insect industry is similarly very funding-constrained. Given that, I'm curious about the decision to focus the foundation's efforts exclusively on scientific research rather than also supporting policy or advocacy work.

9
Bob Fischer
Granted, many worthwhile causes are funding-constrained. However, our view is both that it's especially hard to fund empirical research and that it's especially important to fund it, as it's essential to improving industry practices. Understandably, others may have different priorities, but after thinking long and hard about the various strategic considerations, this is where we land.

Hello forum, just checking in as the EAGxLondon team lead. A couple of things I'd like to say:

  1. As Ollie notes, we had some problems with the venue. We're hoping to have a time in early April locked in soon and will send out an announcement when we do.
  2. Why an EAGx in London? EA Globals have a high bar for admissions, but the UK has a large number of students who are newer to EA. We want to create an opportunity for them to attend an EA event this year and EAGx will be much more accessible for them.
2
JWS 🔸
Hey @jwpieters - is there any update on this? It's looking like beginning of April is cutting it a bit fine at the moment. I was wondering if the UK EAGx is likely to be pushed back this year, or maybe not even happen?
1[comment deleted]

Is the survey data closed access? If so, would it be possible to request access? I have a few questions of my own I'd like to try answer

2
David_Moss
Unfortunately, we don't have consent from participants to share raw data (except with CEA / 80K, for particular purposes, if they opt for that). But if you let us know what questions you are interested in we can likely try to answer these. We have already conducted a large number of private analyses for EA orgs / community members.

Some very belated updates on this project:

In case it's not obvious, we didn't end up running this. There were a couple of reasons for that:

  1. I personally didn't have the capacity to run a project of this size. Other residencies I attended required multiple staff members to run well
  2. The Mexico EA Fellowship was targeting roughly the same demographic and happening at the same time. I didn't want to create competition for this and I think they had an advantage anyway (a more established LatAm community, coinciding with a local EAGx, and a strong team)

I probably ... (read more)

Wasn't sure where else to mention this – the search feature on the forum is pretty bad. I tried finding a post from Claire Zabel by searching "Claire Zabel". I couldn't find it because her username is actually "ClaireZabel"

3
Vaidehi Agarwalla 🔸
+1 I've found this problem a lot. Also the fuzzy search on the search bar is sometimes too fuzzy (e.g. the opposite problem)

I had previously decided to work on EA community-building full-time, and have now mostly changed my mind. I want to write up my reasoning for this. I don't think this will be entirely relevant to general movement strategy, but I think it's worth making legible for others

7
Ben_West🔸
Great, thanks! I added you to the list
5
Nicole_Ross
I think this is totally within scope and I'd personally find it interesting to read!

the question of whether we (i.e. anyone) should be doing mass outreach on the topic of AI Safety is over. It is happening.

 

This feels like a very hostile statement. It's not at all obvious that this question is over. 

I personally feel a lot more cautious about doing mass outreach. I think there's a decent chance people could accidentally do significant harm to future efforts. Policy, politics and advocacy are complicated - regardless of the area you're working in.

For what it's worth, I've spoken to Nik and I think some of the work he's doing is great. I'm especially excited about narrative testing.

6
Greg_Colbourn ⏸️
Whilst I didn't write that, I do basically feel the same way. Sorry if it comes across as hostile, but we're in a pretty desperate situation. Analysis paralysis here could actually be lethal. What timelines are you envisaging re "future efforts"? I feel like we have a few months to get a Pause in place if we actually want a high (90%) chance of survival. The H100 "summoning portals" are already being built.

Thank you for being open about this Max. I'm sorry to hear that it's been tough. I think this post in itself is really valuable. I imagine myself using it as a good example in the future to encourage people to prioritize their mental health.

I appreciate the work you've done to make CEA into an organisation that I really admire. I'm sure you'll do great things in the future. Best wishes!

I often use charity and thrift shops. The other day I was thinking about how it would be cool to have one that donates to GiveWell or something. 

Good job on trying this!

I'm optimistic about this test. Even as a community builder, I find all the community discussion overwhelming. The Forum has become a place I'm less likely to visit because something like half of the discussions don't feel productive for me to engage in.

Flagging that I may be interested in helping run both EA Infrastructure and AI safety versions of this

1
Linda Linsefors
What sort of help can you offer?

This seems great. This org has ties to pretty influential people. A couple of things I'm curious about:

  1. What influenced this direction? (they mentioned the doomsday clock, but I imagine lots of other sources of influence)
  2. Could we piggyback off of this to increase buy-in for x-risk reduction from people in their network? Maybe getting some of their high net-worth supporters to start moving money towards these causes?

There are some EAs hanging out in CDMX until the end of Jan (and maybe some after)

Agree that having a nomad friendly community near the US would be great

2
She's done it
I did end up in Mexico City. I plan to continue the job search from here while exploring independent contracting for some supplemental income and diverse project experience.  - If anyone is looking for expertise in biosecurity/global health to help with ongoing projects, please reach out and delegate to me! I am new here, so I haven't gathered any "EA karma" from well-written posts yet. I would love to change that! LinkedIn - I am open to ideas in up-skilling for the most impactful work I can do as a physician-scientist. Open to ideas for skills to master and funds to apply for the same.  - Also, EAs in the Americas, take a work-cation in CDMX! The weather is excellent, and the city is energetic and green. So far, a good group of EAs have been here after the fellowship ended. I would love to keep it up!

I think this is a nice simple breakdown of the concept.

A nitpick - I think having digital graphs rather than these photos would be a big improvement

[Epistemic status: I've never done recruiting, I don't run or have a position at an 'EA org' - feel free to ignore anything I say]

But, a couple of thoughts:

  1. Your branding and copywriting could use a lot of work. It's not immediately clear to me that this organisation is legitimate.
  2. I'm highly unlikely to apply for a job if I don't know who the hiring organisation is. The organisation and their mission is one of the primary reasons I'll apply anywhere. If you're doing "blind" hiring rounds, you'll need to accrue a lot more trust amongst top talent.
  3. These roles
... (read more)
2
Finn
Hi jwpieters,  On your first point - we sincerely apologise for some of the errors in our copywriting. As I mentioned in my response to Moritz von Knebel, we've had some discussions based on this feedback to ensure this will not be a problem in the future. To your second point - this is also something we've had some internal discussion about. In principle, we'd love to display the names of the orgs we are working with, but we are still trying to work out how to approach this logistically. Our current approach is in line with the standard practice amongst recruitment firms - the name of an organisation is typically not shown in job ads since firms want potential candidates to interact with them during the recruitment process. We aim to convey enough information within our job ads so that potential candidates clearly understand the mission of the organisation they are applying for. Again, I appreciate some of our copywriting may have been subpar here - this will not be an issue in the future.  To address your third point - the roles we recruit for have varying degrees of seniority. Our function is to serve any organisation as per their individual needs - you'd be surprised how difficult and time-consuming it can be for some orgs to hire for even junior positions. 

I think the series Next did a pretty good job of making me scared. It's not an amazing production in itself, but worth watching.

Related thought: should we be trying harder to do outreach to early stage startup founders? Could potentially be very high-EV from a funding perspective

6
Michael St Jules 🔸
I think this is basically one of the things Founders Pledge does, but I don't know how much outreach they actually do. Also, it might be more efficient to just target more successful founders later than early stage ones, since many founders won't succeed.

It's a rough estimate. I think it's difficult to quantify the value of a conference for one individual

The idea of there being increased financial barriers to attending conferences concerns me a lot.

I'd hate to end up in a situation where lower income people or students are discouraged from even applying because they know they won't be able to afford it. I know it would be soul crushing for many people to receive an email saying they've been accepted, but be unable to consider attending due to financial barriers. 

I'd have a preference for smaller events where people are guaranteed funding if they need. I think that looking after a smaller group of peop... (read more)

I'd be excited about CEA hosting or supporting more virtual conferences. These are far cheaper than in-person events, are more accessible in many ways, and I'd estimate they capture about 60% of the value for an individual attendee that an in-person event does.

I could imagine 2-3 of these happening in 2023, perhaps including some for more specific audiences like the previous student summit. These would have the advantage of being able to have a much lower bar for entry (since costs don't increase as linearly as in-person conferences). They could therefore ... (read more)

7
Vaidehi Agarwalla 🔸
Curious where the 60% number is coming from - is that because people make 60% of the connections?

I definitely agree with these points! The delay is entirely a failure on my part . This is definitely not the only event of its kind that will be run though and I anticipate another one will happen very soon after.

As an organiser, I am constantly amazed at how helpful everyone has been. Thank you to all the volunteers, speakers and attendees who have been so willing to contribute! I love this community <3

I'd also be very interested in the reverse of this. Is there anyone who has thought very hard about AI risk and decided to de-prioritise it?

Thanks for writing this Sam. I think there's a lot of value in hearing people's stories in this way

I share this concern, deeply. I think the EA community could be necessary for a lot of future impact. Risks to the community are therefore very bad. 

I'm curious about the term "community health" though. Maybe there are actually two distinct categories of things to track here? One is internal - how people feel and interact within EA - and the other is external - how the general public perceives EA.

I think people are always going to seek status or validation and people in EA are no different. Status in EA has a lot of massive upsides as well (you might have greater chances of getting funding/job offers). It's highly unlikely this will change. What we should be actively monitoring is how closely we're matching status with impact.

Also, I'm not sure if the title is good or bad. I think this post points to some important things about status in EA and I wonder if the misleading title makes people less likely to read it. On the other hand, I thought it looked funny and that made me click on it.

1
Izo
Updated the title, thank you for your thoughts jwpieters!

It's all about the Caleb points man

Thanks for following up. This is very interesting. I'd like to think more about what lessons from the startup world might be applicable in our case.

I don't think the dichotomy being presented here is true. We can plausibly have both of these things. 
The claim that "Cape Town is not Africa" also doesn't seem very obvious to me. I can see the possible assumptions here maybe being something like "Africa must necessarily be a harsh environment to live in" or "some degree of material suffering is necessary to understand African perspectives." I don't think either of these are true.

I'm really interested in your perspective on this though. I'll reach out to discuss this further

6
Ruth_CT
I definitely wouldn't say a harsh environment or suffering was necessary!  I also wouldn't say it's a dichotomy, but I do think the two priorities would lead you to different locations. "Cape Town is not Africa" is flippant but there's substance behind it. I really don't think it's contentious to say that Cape Town feels much more like a city in Europe than in another African country. To share context from tech startup world (particularly since you've emphasized that as a strength of CT as a tech hub in the post), successful startups that expand from Cape Town tend to target the UK or US rather than other African countries; many were aimed at those markets from the beginning.  This could be seen as a good indication of talent based here & compatibility with a largely US/European movement,  but it isn't supportive of CT as a natural base for  a pan-African movement. * Examples: GetSmarter (aimed at Europe), Over (aimed at US,  now part of GoDaddy), Pineapple (started in SA, launching in the US), Cogrammar (aimed at global companies), LessonSpace (SA tutoring platform pivoted to this remote learning tool servicing customers in Europe & US).  It's not always true (Luno is a notable exception - big in Africa, though also elsewhere) but I have pretty high confidence this is a trend and I'm not just cherry picking. * (Related: Several major SA retailers launched in Nigeria and then backed out (Shoprite, Woolworths, Tiger Brands)  Brief explanation (/a bit clickbaity) here Conversely, if you look at successful startups that have expanded across multiple countries in Africa, they most commonly start from Nigeria: e.g. Andela, Flutterwave, Jumia, OPay, Interswitch. ChipperCash was well established in Nigeria and Kenya (and several other countries) long before they launched in SA. Google just launched their first African product team in Nairobi. There are obviously many other factors involved  and I'm definitely not saying EA should just copy VC-funded tech patterns. 

Location: Currently living in Cape Town, but have a preference for moving to the UK

Remote: Yes

Willing to relocate: Yes (mostly)

Experience: I've done a fair bit of EA community building and am leaning towards roles in the meta-EA space. I have also done research for an EA org and communications/marketing in the for-profit and non-profit sectors.

Skills: Very people-oriented. I love leading groups and engaging in difficult conversation. I also think I write pretty well (I'll hopefully have more public evidence of this soon). I'm an unapologetic generalist wit... (read more)

One thing this post doesn't really touch on, which I would like more discussion about, is why we should establish new hubs in the first place. I think creating an EA hub that's as good as Berkeley or Oxford is actually really difficult, so we should plausibly spend a lot of time deciding whether it's worth the cost. We should weigh up the cost of new hubs with the cost of just trying to get people to move to an existing one. Sure, maybe not everyone can move to Oxford or Berkeley if they want to, but not everyone needs to live in a 'hub'. 

Maybe the fl... (read more)

I think that what we currently call retreats seem diverse enough that the events might deserve entirely different names. Organisers could put more care into choosing a term, on a case-by-case basis, that accurately sets expectations. Some retreats I've heard of do appear to entail spending a few days in the countryside forming better bonds within a group. In that case, calling it a "retreat" would be reasonable.

I'm not sure what your background is, but I agree that getting in touch with local EA groups is a great place to start. We (University of Cape Town) would certainly be happy to have somebody offer help

I'll just add all mine in one comment, since I'm assuming you won't base your decision off the number of upvotes. Most of these are about movement-building, since that's probably what I spend most of my time thinking about

  • The EA community should not be trying to grow.
    • This research would advocate for something like stronger gatekeeping/less outreach.
  • Giving pledges (GWWC, OFTW) are no longer relevant for engaged EAs 
    • Perhaps linked to ETG becoming less of a priority
  • Despite many community builders pushing for them, fellowships are not the best way to get
... (read more)
6
ChanaMessinger
Seconding the first one.
Load more