This was really helpful, thank you!

https://elicit.ought.org/builder/RT9kxWoF9 My distribution! Good question Linch; it had a fun mix of investigative LinkedIn sleuthing + decomposition + reasoning about Linch + thoughts that I could sense others might disagree with.

I'll make a distribution. Do you want to make a distribution too and then we can compare?

Non-forecasting question: have you ever felt like an outsider in any of the communities you consider yourself to be a part of?

Which types of forecasting questions do you like / dislike more?

I will forecast a personal question for you e.g. "How many new friends will I make this year?" What do you want to ask me?

Thanks so much for doing this work! I'm pretty excited about making progress on this. If others want to collaborate, please ping jungwon@ought.org.

Also like this idea! Confused about Moody's revenue - it's $1T? Is it not ~ $4.2BN with 12,000 employees (as opposed to 1,300)?

Thanks for this post, Paul.

NOTE: Response to this post has been even greater than we expected. We received more applications for experiment participant than we currently have the capacity to manage so we are temporarily taking the posting down. If you've applied and don't hear from us for a while, please excuse the delay! Thanks everyone who has expressed interest - we're hoping to get back to you and work with you soon.