Thanks for the post! I was interested in what the difference between "Semiconductor industry amortize their R&D cost due to slower improvements" and "Sale price amortization when improvements are slower" are. Would the decrease in price stem from the decrease in cost as companies no longer need to spend as much on R&D?
Thanks! What happens to your doubling times if you exclude the outliers from efficient ML models?
I really appreciated the extension on "AI and Compute". Do you have a sense of the extent to which your estimate of the doubling time differs from "AI and Compute" stems from differences in selection criteria vs new data since its publication in 2018? Have you done analysis on what the trend looks like if you only include data points that fulfil their inclusion criteria?
For reference, it seems like their criteria is "... results that are relatively well known, used a lot of compute for their time, and gave enough information to estimate the compute used." Whereas yours is "important publication within the field of AI OR lots of citations OR performance record on common benchmark". "... used a lot of compute for their time" would probably do a whole lot of work to select data points that will show a faster doubling time.
Thanks for this! I really look forward to seeing the rest of the sequence, especially on the governance bits.
Came here to say the same thing :)
Thanks for the question. I agree that managing these kinds of issues is important and we aim to do so appropriately.
GovAI will continue to do research on regulation. To date, most of our work has been fairly foundational, though the past 1-2 years has seen an increase in research that may provide some fairly concrete advice to policymakers. This is primarily as the field is maturing, as policymakers are increasingly seeking to put in place AI regulation, and some folks at GovAI have had an interest in pursuing more policy-relevant work.
My view is that most of our policy work to date has been fairly (small c) conservative and has seldom passed judgment on whether there should be more or less regulation and praising specific actors. You can sample some of that previous work here:
We're not yet decided on how we'll manage potential conflicts of interest. Thoughts on what principles are welcome. Below is a subset of things that are likely to be put in place:
Thanks! I agree that using a term like "socially beneficial" might be better. On the other hand, it might be helpful to couch self-governance proposals in terms of corporate social responsibility, as it is a term already in wide use.
Some brief thoughts (just my quick takes. My guess is that others might disagree, including at GovAI):
Happy to give my view. Could you say something about what particular views or messages you're curious about? (I don't have time to reread the script atm)
Thanks Michael! Yeah, I hope it ends up being helpful.