This is a linkpost for Ryan Beck's winning essay in Metaculus's Szilard Fortified Essay Contest. Essays focused on questions pertaining to long-term nuclear risks and called for authors to support their arguments with quantified forecasts.

Readers are encouraged to click through to the original essay where they can engage directly with the author and make their own forecasts.

Heightened geopolitical tensions can increase the risk of war, and when tensions between nuclear powers deteriorate the risk of nuclear war can increase. One such relationship facing heightened tensions is between the United States and China. This is particularly concerning as China has recently increased its nuclear stockpile and shown increased aggression toward neighboring states. This essay examines the risk of nuclear war between the US and China and offers possible means of lowering that risk.

Background

China's nuclear stockpile growth has been notable, increasing by 60 warheads from 2019 to 2020, the largest recent increase of any nuclear capable state (see the figure below from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), US and Russia not shown).

Additionally, a report by the Pentagon estimates that China could expand to 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. As of December 6th the Metaculus community forecasts a 68% chance that China will have at least 420 nuclear weapons prior to 2024.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/

This is significant not only due to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, but also due to China's geopolitical situation. China has seen worsening relations with the US, as well as with neighboring countries such as Taiwan, Japan, and India. These worsening relations combined with the growth in China's nuclear stockpile could indicate an increased risk of nuclear war involving China.

The Risk

A nuclear conflict may not start as an outright offensive. A small scale clash, even one sparked by accident or misunderstanding, could quickly escalate. Below are the Metaculus community forecasts for a deadly armed conflict happening prior to 2024 between China and the states China appears to be at heightened tensions with.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-jap

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