Hi Karthik, we're glad to hear our additional documents provided useful detail. We apologise if our deviation from GiveWell wasn't clear, but hopefully our explanation below is clarifying.
While we made a few minor amendments to GiveWell's replicability adjustment, including to the weight/cognition/schooling components (as outlined in this section), our most material change was to account for economic losers. We account for economic losers by adjusting the size of the effect from the 20-year Busia follow-up (if you would like to see the calculations you can look at this cell, but it may be easier to follow our rationale for the calculation in this section). This "adjusted" effect size is then combined with the weight/cognition/schooling components in a Bayesian analysis.
As noted in the post, we believe others could reasonably disagree with the details of how we calculated this "adjusted" effect size, particularly the details around how the figures relating to wage-employed and self-employed people were used to calibrate the size of the adjustment. We do however think the outcome of the calculation gets us to an adjustment which is materially higher than the 3% adjustment used by GiveWell, which was the main aim of calculating the adjustment.
Thanks for your comment.
We agree that economic implications are complex, and discuss this in our longer analysis document, where we too focus on productivity.
Some of the comments we have made in response to karthik-t may also be relevant here.
Thank you for your comment.
I'm sorry you were disappointed by the lack of detail on this post.
We have not claimed that labour market competition is the most likely channel for what we observe.
Sure, here it is https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Q5AFHCOlgAo_oCQxGB0yA7U3wA01FFotZFIlYU15uu8/edit?usp=sharing :)