If you're good at forecasting it's reasonable to expect you'll be above average at reasoning or decision making tasks that require making predictions.
But judgment is potentially different. In "Prediction Machines" Agrawal et al separate judgment and prediction as two distinct parts of decision making where the former involves weighing tradeoffs. That's harder to measure but a potentially distinct way to think about the difference between judgment and forecasting. They have a theoretical paper on this decision making model too.
Maybe I've misunderstood but in my humble opinion, and limited experience, forecasting is just a tiny tiny fraction of good judgement, (maybe about 1% depending on how broad you define forecasting). It can be useful, but somewhat overrated by the EA community.
Other aspects of good judgment may include things like:
I think it would be clearer to put many of these under different categories than to lump everything under judgement. In my post I also cover the following, and try to sketch how they're different:
I should have maybe mentioned creativity as another category.
I also contrast 'using judgement' with alternatives like statistical analysis; applying best practice; quantitative models etc., though you might draw on these in making your judgement.
Thank Ben super useful.
@Linch I was taking a very very broad view of judgment.
Ben's post is much better and breaks things done in a much nicer way.
I also made a (not particularly successful) stab at explaining some aspects of not-foresight driven judgement here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/znaZXBY59Ln9SLrne/how-to-think-about-an-uncertain-future-lessons-from-other#Story_1__RAND_and_the_US_military
Thanks a lot for the answer! A lot of the things you put into "other" (which is a very long list, btw!) are things I'd put under "forecasting." I wonder where the crux is?
Some examples (non-exhaustive) of things I consider to be closer to "forecasting" than "not forecasting."
I also understand all of these as very important to forecasting.