Put another way, imagine the US, UK, France, et al. were run by Viktor Orbán for the next three decades, during the maybe most important century. How much harder would it be to reduce the probability of a GCBR, dangerous superintelligence, etc.? [Edit: And, should EA dedicate some resources to reducing our uncertainty on this question?]
It strikes me as highly plausible that climate change and the global decline of liberal democracy could indirectly increase the probability of an x-risk. However, to my knowledge, there have been no EA investigations into whether or to what extent this is true. I would be very interested in hearing y'all's thoughts on this matter & potentially interested in helping secure funding to research this topic.
To be clear, I am not saying several degrees of global warming or forms of government besides liberal democracy are existential risks. I am saying that they may increase the likelihood of x-risk indirectly, in any number of ways. For instance, climate change and declining liberal democracies are both likely to further increase violence. This may increase the likelihood that a catastrophic bioweapon will be employed.
I also suspect that some longtermists are far too quick to dismiss these issues as not longtermist or a minuscule contributor to the problem.
Again, I'm posting because I would love to hear your thoughts so please comment (or message me)!
Note on Infohazards:
I find much of the discussion about political violence in current liberal democracies to be reckless, and indeed increase the likelihood of violence. I expect any discussion of political violence on the EA Forum to be conducted with the utmost seriousness -- without undue pessimism (which seems quite fashionable these day); without any suggestions of the inevitability of doom (because, unlike a natural pandemic, I strongly suspect thinking a democracy will collapse into violence increases the probability that it will); without sensationalizing, dismissiveness.