With support from the FTX Future Fund, the project features a public forecasting tournament and a Pro Forecaster initiative delivering 1, 3, 10, 30, and 100-year predictions

Metaculus has launched Forecasting Our World In Data, a tournament that will deliver predictions on technological advancement, global development, and social progress on time horizons ranging from one to 100 years, with close collaboration from the Our World In Data (OWID) team.

OWID is one of the world's largest open online repositories of data and is a valuable source of information about both humanity's progress and challenges. Metaculus will collect forecasts and analyses on thirty OWID metrics — including CO2 emissions, supercomputer performance, nuclear stockpiles, and more — to generate likelihoods of specific outcomes in humanity's future. Aggregating crowd forecasts and weighting them by forecasters' past performance leads to greater accuracy than relying on a single model or subject matter expert alone.

The Forecasting Our World In Data tournament will award a prize pool of $20,000 to incentivize accurate forecasting and insightful written comments by forecasters. For each OWID metric, participants are invited to predict outcomes at 1, 3, 10, 30, and 100 years. Prizes will be awarded for accurate performance on 1 and 3-year outcomes and cogent analysis on 10, 30, and 100-year outcomes. Questions are staggered, with 10 questions opening today and 10 additional questions opening October 19th and 26th. Metaculus Pro Forecasters will predict each metric alongside the crowd.

A grant from the Future Fund makes this project possible, and is greatly appreciated. Our thanks also to the forecasting community for contributing to a greater understanding of humanity's near- and long-term future. The first set of questions is now open for public forecasting here.

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3 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 6:27 AM

Will the forecasts be published on OWID?

Hey Nathan — currently, there are only plans to publish the forecasts on Metaculus. We'll let you know if that changes, however. 

I wonder what is the relationship between a prize pool size and accuracy of predictions. It seems that EA community can easily 10x the size of a reward if it would be helpful for such a cool project. At this size the prizes seem more like a token on appreciation than a tool to motivate participation