We’re developing an AI-enabled wargaming-tool, grim, to significantly scale up the number of catastrophic scenarios that concerned organizations can explore and to improve emergency response capabilities of, at least, Sentinel.
Table of Contents
1. How AI Improves on the State of the Art
2. Implementation Details, Limitations, and Improvements
3. Learnings So Far
4. Get Involved!
How AI Improves on the State of the Art
In a wargame, a group dives deep into a specific scenario in the hopes of understanding the dynamics of a complex system and understanding weaknesses in responding to hazards in the system. Reality has a surprising amount of detail, so thinking abstractly about the general shapes of issues is insufficient. However, wargames are quite resource intensive to run precisely because they require detail and coordination.
Eli Lifland shared with us some limitations about the exercises his team has run, like at The Curve conference:
1. It took about a month of total person-hours to iterate of iterating on the rules, printouts, etc.
2. They don’t have experts to play important roles like the Chinese government and occasionally don’t have experts to play technical roles or the US government.
3. Players forget about important possibilities or don’t know what actions would be reasonable.
4. There are a bunch of background variables which would be nice to keep track of more systematically, such as what the best publicly deployed AIs from each company are, how big private deployments are and for what purpose they are deployed, compute usage at each AGI project, etc. For simplicity, at the moment they only make a graph of best internal AI at each project (and rogue AIs if they exist).
5. It's effortful for them to vary things like the starting situation of the game, distribution of alignment outcomes, takeoff speeds, etc.
AI can significantly improve on all the limitations above, such that more people can go through more scenarios faster at the same q
I am in the process of reading a book called The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt and I think the theories and research on moral psychology Haidt discusses could be applied to this topic to create some interesting research / studies!