From the perspective of an approach called Human-Centric Functional Modeling (HCFM), which defines systems according to their function, the earth is an adaptive problem-solving system that functions to solve the problems posed by it's environment. As we'll see, this perspective is important in defining in the simplest possible way why human intelligence has been so impactful on the planet. And this approach is important in understanding how to fix that impact.

From this functional modeling perspective, the earth can be defined in terms of a minimal (simplest possible) set of functions of the earth, and higher order interactions between those functions, to the limit of some order N that is reliably achievable without a new system of organization to govern those interactions. Biological life consists of all the Nth order interactions between those functions, where these interactions are higher order and therefore of greater complexity than reliably achievable without life. From the functional modeling perspective homeostasis is the process of seeking to sustain fitness to function, and all life shares this feature. In essence, in the earth converting part of itself into life, life is a set of processes the earth has developed during it's lifetime to adapt to give itself greater capacity to maintain stability in it's fitness to function.

The earth's adaptation to produce human intelligence marks a functional transition point in the life of the earth. Human intelligence has enabled the part of the earth that is mankind to not only generate a surplus of resources, which other animals can do, but has also given mankind sufficient capacity for abstraction to enable that surplus to be represented in abstract terms that remove the barriers to accumulation. Whether accumulation of knowledge of where fruits or vegetables can be gathered, whether accumulation of reasoning processes enabling prey animals to be outwitted or predator animals to be escaped, with such abstraction any accumulation can potentially be represented as, for example, abstract economic value that can be stored and exchanged, so that economic value can be accumulated at levels orders of magnitude greater. But value in the abstract is impact on any targeted problem in the world, so capacity to accumulate value is the capacity for this subset of the world that is human to achieve impact on the entire world itself. And this removal of barriers to accumulating value has enabled human-beings to accumulate orders of magnitude greater value, and to have the potential for orders of magnitude greater impact on the world around us, than any other organism.

If it's true that no other animal has had the intelligence to have been able to abstract value into a form that can be accumulated in this way, then looking at economic value as one measure of capacity for impact, the economic value of human intelligence might be at least the value of all economic wealth that has been accumulated to date, that is, all the economic wealth in existence on the earth. For this reason human intelligence, in terms of capacity for not only economic but also of other impacts, might be nature's most important innovation in the entire 3.5 billion year history of the earth. Human intelligence is not only likely the most impactful innovation in the history of the planet, but it also might be the most impactful innovation possible in the planet’s future until a similarly transformative change in ability to create impact on any objective (to create and store value) might be achieved.

Human intelligence is unique in it's capacity for impact as measured in this way, however, a model of human cognition defined using HCFM suggests that without a fundamental change in the organization of groups, human cognition, whether individual or in groups, faces a limit to the complexity of problems it can reliably define or solve, and a limit to the degree that it can reliably scale cooperation to increase that capacity.

A new cognitive system with the ability to solve even higher order problems would make solving entirely new problems possible, such as the problem of abstracting value even further so it can be accumulated at many orders of magnitude higher still. For example, such a system might make it possible to solve the problem of understanding, at a specific enough level to communicate sufficient incentive to everyone who needs to be incentivized to participate, how cooperating in one thing, like making better cell phones, can benefit cooperation in everything else, like gardening. Because at some level of abstraction, all cooperation is the same task. But this can't reliably be achieved without groups having the capacity to abstract the value in abstraction itself, which would provide an entirely new level of value the group might accumulate, and therefore an entirely new level of potential impact.

This ability to accumulate exponentially greater value would mark another transition point in the life of the earth. Currently even though mankind can travel to the moon or to mars, we are constrained to the earth's resources in doing so. A new cognitive system with the potential to conceive higher order problems and solutions might potentially operate not just with the earth's resources, but with resources of other planets or celestial bodies, and therefore effectively be part of a larger system than the earth, such as the solar system or galaxy. In its increased capacity of this subset of the solar system or galaxy that is human to change the entire earth itself, this new cognitive system would be the most important innovation in both the history and immediate future of mankind.

An ability to accumulate value (impact problems) at such a scale would represent such a transformative change that it would replace human intelligence in importance. When at some time in the future that point of transformation arrives and our collective capacity to accumulate value scales dramatically, no innovation resulting from human intelligence at any time in the history of human civilization, whether discovering the wheel, the printing press, electricity, the internal combustion engine, or even the computer, will have been more important. Just as no innovation before that point can have been more important than nature’s invention of intelligence itself which led to them.

General Collective Intelligence or GCI is a system that organizes groups of individuals into a single collective intelligence with the potential for vastly greater general problem solving ability than any individual in the group. Because GCI leverages a model of human cognition that might be used to implement a system of Artificial General Intelligence or AGI, implementing a GCI will create semantic models of reasoning processes and information, as well as other components, that can be reused to create an AGI. However, GCI has been suggested to be more important that AGI because there are problems that are predicted to be not reliably solvable without GCI. One such problem is making an AGI safe. AGI has been predicted to drive unprecedented inequality, and has been predicted to enable unprecedented surveillance, for whomever owns it. The potential centralization of authority resulting from such destabilizing levels of inequality, and surveillance has been suggested to be an existential risk in itself. In particular, because once such a system is used to centralize decision-making in this way, objection to harm caused by that system might not be reliably possible, while misalignment of that system with collective interests might virtually guarantee such harm will occur. And because once such a decision-making system is in place, controlling it might not be reliably achievable where it is too complex to understand. However, GCI is predicted to have the capacity to reliably define a sufficiently complex web of decentralized mutual cooperation to bind an AGI to the well-being of people and the planet.

AGI is only one existential risk. But a system for significantly increasing a group's general problem solving ability is relevant to solving the problem posed by every other existential risk as well. Because if the problem with complex problems is that they are too complex for us to currently have the ability to conceptualize either the problem, or its solution, then the problem of all existential risks is the lack of a system that reliably makes us smart enough to do so. One experiment to validate the capacity of a GCI to significantly increase the problem-solving ability of a group in this way is discussed here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cc8WN9LFz8pATRMYz/how-to-launch-an-experiment-in-the-effective-altruism

Comments2


Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

This type of content might be more suited to LessWrong, and you might get better feedback/engagement there.

I just signed up for LessWrong. Thanks!

Curated and popular this week
Paul Present
 ·  · 28m read
 · 
Note: I am not a malaria expert. This is my best-faith attempt at answering a question that was bothering me, but this field is a large and complex field, and I’ve almost certainly misunderstood something somewhere along the way. Summary While the world made incredible progress in reducing malaria cases from 2000 to 2015, the past 10 years have seen malaria cases stop declining and start rising. I investigated potential reasons behind this increase through reading the existing literature and looking at publicly available data, and I identified three key factors explaining the rise: 1. Population Growth: Africa's population has increased by approximately 75% since 2000. This alone explains most of the increase in absolute case numbers, while cases per capita have remained relatively flat since 2015. 2. Stagnant Funding: After rapid growth starting in 2000, funding for malaria prevention plateaued around 2010. 3. Insecticide Resistance: Mosquitoes have become increasingly resistant to the insecticides used in bednets over the past 20 years. This has made older models of bednets less effective, although they still have some effect. Newer models of bednets developed in response to insecticide resistance are more effective but still not widely deployed.  I very crudely estimate that without any of these factors, there would be 55% fewer malaria cases in the world than what we see today. I think all three of these factors are roughly equally important in explaining the difference.  Alternative explanations like removal of PFAS, climate change, or invasive mosquito species don't appear to be major contributors.  Overall this investigation made me more convinced that bednets are an effective global health intervention.  Introduction In 2015, malaria rates were down, and EAs were celebrating. Giving What We Can posted this incredible gif showing the decrease in malaria cases across Africa since 2000: Giving What We Can said that > The reduction in malaria has be
Rory Fenton
 ·  · 6m read
 · 
Cross-posted from my blog. Contrary to my carefully crafted brand as a weak nerd, I go to a local CrossFit gym a few times a week. Every year, the gym raises funds for a scholarship for teens from lower-income families to attend their summer camp program. I don’t know how many Crossfit-interested low-income teens there are in my small town, but I’ll guess there are perhaps 2 of them who would benefit from the scholarship. After all, CrossFit is pretty niche, and the town is small. Helping youngsters get swole in the Pacific Northwest is not exactly as cost-effective as preventing malaria in Malawi. But I notice I feel drawn to supporting the scholarship anyway. Every time it pops in my head I think, “My money could fully solve this problem”. The camp only costs a few hundred dollars per kid and if there are just 2 kids who need support, I could give $500 and there would no longer be teenagers in my town who want to go to a CrossFit summer camp but can’t. Thanks to me, the hero, this problem would be entirely solved. 100%. That is not how most nonprofit work feels to me. You are only ever making small dents in important problems I want to work on big problems. Global poverty. Malaria. Everyone not suddenly dying. But if I’m honest, what I really want is to solve those problems. Me, personally, solve them. This is a continued source of frustration and sadness because I absolutely cannot solve those problems. Consider what else my $500 CrossFit scholarship might do: * I want to save lives, and USAID suddenly stops giving $7 billion a year to PEPFAR. So I give $500 to the Rapid Response Fund. My donation solves 0.000001% of the problem and I feel like I have failed. * I want to solve climate change, and getting to net zero will require stopping or removing emissions of 1,500 billion tons of carbon dioxide. I give $500 to a policy nonprofit that reduces emissions, in expectation, by 50 tons. My donation solves 0.000000003% of the problem and I feel like I have f
 ·  · 8m read
 · 
In my past year as a grantmaker in the global health and wellbeing (GHW) meta space at Open Philanthropy, I've identified some exciting ideas that could fill existing gaps. While these initiatives have significant potential, they require more active development and support to move forward.  The ideas I think could have the highest impact are:  1. Government placements/secondments in key GHW areas (e.g. international development), and 2. Expanded (ultra) high-net-worth ([U]HNW) advising Each of these ideas needs a very specific type of leadership and/or structure. More accessible options I’m excited about — particularly for students or recent graduates — could involve virtual GHW courses or action-focused student groups.  I can’t commit to supporting any particular project based on these ideas ahead of time, because the likelihood of success would heavily depend on details (including the people leading the project). Still, I thought it would be helpful to articulate a few of the ideas I’ve been considering.  I’d love to hear your thoughts, both on these ideas and any other gaps you see in the space! Introduction I’m Mel, a Senior Program Associate at Open Philanthropy, where I lead grantmaking for the Effective Giving and Careers program[1] (you can read more about the program and our current strategy here). Throughout my time in this role, I’ve encountered great ideas, but have also noticed gaps in the space. This post shares a list of projects I’d like to see pursued, and would potentially want to support. These ideas are drawn from existing efforts in other areas (e.g., projects supported by our GCRCB team), suggestions from conversations and materials I’ve engaged with, and my general intuition. They aren’t meant to be a definitive roadmap, but rather a starting point for discussion. At the moment, I don’t have capacity to more actively explore these ideas and find the right founders for related projects. That may change, but for now, I’m interested in