How should the Anthropic IPO impact my donations?

Hey guys — as someone doing earning to give, I’m trying to figure out how the likely influx of money from an Anthropic IPO should affect my donation choices — both in terms of where to donate and my short-term ratio between donating and saving for retirement.

This is my current understanding (or misunderstanding) of the situation, so please correct me:

• The IPO will likely happen at the end of 2026, but a large influx of money is not expected until the end of 2027 or 2028.
• Technical AI safety will likely receive the most money, followed by AI policy. The marginal donation to these cause areas will therefore only have a fraction of the impact it has now.
• S-risk and artificial sentience may also receive a lot of money, but this is more uncertain.
• Factory farming and wild animal welfare may also receive a decent amount of money, but there will likely still be many good donation opportunities in these areas.

Currently I’m mainly donating to AI policy. So, it might be a good idea to try to donate as much as possible to AI policy until ~2028. After that, I could focus more on saving for retirement and donating to other cause areas.

Do you guys agree with this, or am I getting something wrong? :)