I work on reducing biological risks, mostly focused on reducing existential risks to humanity. One major pathway by which such catastrophes could come about is by humans deliberately causing them, e.g. via the creation and release of mirror bacteria. I feel very unsure how high the probability of this is.
One major variable that feeds into this probability is the incidence of "omnicidality", the motivation to kill everyone. There are different versions of omnicidality. One version of omnicidality would agree that, if humanity could painlessly cease to exist, this would be worth bringing about. People who fall into this camp are some negative utilitarians.
This seems very different from being willing to press a button that unleashes a pandemic that ends humanity amidst great terror and suffering. What matters for my question is the second form of omnicidality. Is there any evidence we can draw on to estimate this probability?
The only historical case study worth citing here, that I'm aware of, is Aum Shinrikyo. Importantly, however, Aum Shinrikyo probably did not try to kill everyone; they were intent on preserving themselves. Whether this difference matters depends on how much near-extinction increases the chances of full extinction, which I'm also unsure about.
