A lot of career advices(including 80000 hours) claimed " the expected earning of CS major graduates is relatively quite high(like $150k-$200k/year now)." However, I doubt this fact may not hold in the pre-human-level AGI era.

 My intuition is the relative income of middle and bottom CS engineers would be worse.

This question seems underdiscussed but practically important for college students trying to estimate which career paths may remain strongest for earning to give.

So, At about the halfway point between now and HL-AGI, based on your own best-guess timeline, do you expect:

1.What multiple of average US individual income do you expect the median income of CS graduates to be?

2.What multiple of average US individual income do you expect the average income of CS graduates to be?

The voting here isn't about absolute purchasing power, since pre-HL-AGI economic growth may well make many people better off in real terms. I’m more interested in the relative strength of CS as a high-income path compared with other career options.

Therefore, Assume today’s median/avergae CS salary is roughly 2.5 times more than the median/average US individual income(This isn't accurate, just serving as a central anchor). And think about in the future, how many times will CS graduates earn more than average individulas in US?

Also, I’m counting unemployment as part of the outcome here(complete unemployment means $0 income), not looking only at the incomes of those who remain employed.

Please vote by the two polls below.

I’d be very interested in people’s rough intuitions, even if they’re highly uncertain.

Thanks very much for your voting. I’d also be very interested in brief comments about the reasons behind your vote.

Average income of CS graduates relative to average US individual income at the midpoint between now and HL-AGI

1x

4x