Hide table of contents

Once Putin launched a full-scale invasion on Ukraine, many countries all over the world decided to come to Ukraine's aid. They gave Ukraine weapons, imposed sanctions on Russia and offered refuge to Ukrainians fleeing bombings. Voters call on their governments to do more, but the leaders do not want to risk a nuclear war.

I have heard that there are some EAs involved in policy in NATO countries, and I want to suggest a policy your countries can implement. It carries no risk of nuclear escalation, does not cost anything and will only make your countries richer, would weaken Russia's economy, reduce Putin's conscription base and steal his technical talent. It will not be enough to stop the war by itself, but it will help. 

Just like the header says, just let Russians enter your country. Open borders would be ideal, but any simplification of the visa process will help.

[PSA: I know a brilliant Russian ML researcher who was working on an AI safety grant before the war started. The grant was cancelled due to sanctions, and this is your chance to hire him to work abroad or remotely.]

Why will this be an effective measure against Putin?

The first effect is on the armed forces. Men who don't want to fight will be able to avoid conscription. Soldiers will find it easier to desert if they AND their family can escape the country, since the regime sometimes targets dissenters' families.

The second effect is to weaken the economy. People leaving the country will stop paying taxes that sponsor the war. And these are not just random people leaving. The emigrants tend to be the people with savings, higher education, in-demand skills, foreign language knowledge and a good grip on reality. The brain drain created by emigration will further undermine Putin's ability to make weapons.

It may also undermine Putin's internal propaganda. People who watch Russian TV sound convinced that everyone hates Russians abroad, I had to reassure my dad that I am not abused in Berlin. This may make people feel that they have no choice left but to stick with their president, but offering refuge to Russians will make it obvious that it's untrue.

In addition to hurting Putin's regime, immigration can be beneficial to your own country.

The benefits of immigration to your country
- Immigration increases GDP.
- Immigrants are highly entrepreneurial. For example, USA immigrants launch new companies at twice the rate of native-born Americans and create large numbers of jobs. 
- Immigrants are more likely to be young and working than native citizens, so they provide net benefit to government revenues and improve the social safety net for an aging population.

I'll try to answer some objections that might be raised against this policy.

 What if Putin just closes the border?

He might, but then all the soldiers guarding the border cannot be fighting in Ukraine at the same time.

Won't some Russian immigrants be spies? 

Yes. But, as the science writer and aerospace engineer Robert Zubrin points out, anyone doing classified work has to go through a security-clearance process. I am advocating for the policy of letting Russians into the country, not for the policy of giving all Russians access to all secrets.

 We should cut off escape routes to Russians, in order to incentivize them to overthrow their government!

This argument assumes that overthrowing the government is a matter of being courageous and motivated enough. Below you see a famous picture of an courageous Chinese man stopping tanks on June 5th, 1898, the day after the Tiananmen massacre.

Tiananmen protester stops tanks

Around 100,000 students participated in those protests, thousands of them were killed, and the protests were suppressed. As Bruce Bueno de Mescita explains in "Dictator's Handbook", revolutions usually succeed either when the dictator is on his deathbed or when he fails to pay his essential supporters. Police and the army will disperse protests and massacre citizens, as long as they are payed enough to do this. Are they in Russia?

In an audio recording made by antiwar protester Alexandra Kalyzskih during her detention, a policeman hits, slaps and theatens her, and boasts that he will get a bonus for it. Not that the policeman's word is trustworthy, but their behaviour confirms it: they remain loyal for now.

Putin does not seem terribly concerned about the prospect of revolution either, as he is trying to stop people from leaving the country.  Indeed, Metaculus predicts with 60% confidence that the Russian border will close by April.

People trying to leave get extensively interrogated at the border, their phones and belongings searched.

The law from 2nd March makes it illegal for Russian residents to transfer money abroad, and for anyone to take more than 10 000$ of cash in foreign currency when leaving the country. You are considered a Russian resident if you spent 183 days in the country this year. This make it hard for new emigrants to access their money, while rent prices have surged in countries open to Russians, such as Turkey.

Rogozin, the CEO of a state owned Roskosmos aerospace company, forbade his employees to go abroad.

It was suggested to free IT workers from the draft and give them a mortgage discount, to get them to stay in the country.

Obviously Putin believes that the usefulness of would-be emigrants to the Russian economy is greater than the threat they represent. So he is trying to keep them in. Anyone stopping Russians from leaving is helping Putin.

What about the people from all the other countries, shouldn't we open the borders for them, too?
I believe that borders should be open for everyone. But big changes have to start somewhere. You start by inviting Ukrainians and Russians. I predict that this will prove beneficial for your country, and the voters will see it. This success allows you to push for more immigration. (Or, if my prediction is wrong, you can stop there.)

115

0
0

Reactions

0
0

More posts like this

Comments17


Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:
DC
11
0
1

PSA: I know a brilliant Russian ML researcher who was working on an AI safety grant before the war started. The grant was cancelled due to sanctions, and this is your chance to hire him to work abroad or remotely.]

Wait, seriously? Is this a grant by an EA institution? How does "a grant get cancelled due to sanctions"? That sounds terribly risk-averse. Someone replace this funding!

I am the person whose grant made by SAF through a legal entity called SEE got cancelled and they asked for the rest of their money back :(

Update from 2022-03-15: looks like I don't have to return the money after all. I am still looking for a job though.

My understanding is that this is due to mandatory legal reasons. I believe Philip's situation will be resolved via another donor soon.

Just to play devil’s advocate:

For many different types of talented people, the harm to the Russian government from their emigration might be overstated (at least the short term harm), because it’s economy is disproportionately based on oil and gas. Taxes from citizens’ economic activity are not as important.

But the strong case for open immigration does not require this harm to be true.

Thanks for the great idea!

Here's an email script summarizing this article. I wrote it in ~5 minutes to send to my US Congressional representative, so it's not very polished, but I think it's good enough. 

Hi! I'd like to encourage Rep. ___ to advocate for opening borders to Russians as much as possible. Any simplification of the visa process will help. This will weaken Russia and its onslaught on Ukraine while also strengthening our economy.

First, Russian men who don't want to fight would avoid conscription or desert the army by immigrating to the US with their families. Second, the Russian economy would weaken: emigrants would stop paying taxes, and the Russian military would experience brain drain. Third, a kind welcome from the US would weaken Putin's propaganda that everyone hates Russian people.

As for us, we'd get the best kind of immigrants: people willing to change their lives to avoid supporting a corrupt government. These people are the most likely to have savings, higher education, in-demand skills, English skills, and generally a good grip on reality.

In conclusion, let's welcome Russian people to take a stand against the Russian government!

What are the concrete policies to advocate for? What are the biggest hurdles that Russian emigrants are facing at the moment? AFAIK, it's only Baltic countries and Czechia which stopped granting  visas to Russians. It should be possible to get a visa in other EU countries. Would granting vises on arrival (as opposed to getting it in advance) help? Is transfer of money outside of the country the biggest problem? Is it limited air flights opportunities? (I hear it's still possible to get to Europe via Serbia.) Is the problem rather with turning the visa into residence permit? Or maybe getting a work permit?

It was already suggested to use US humanitarian parole program to to give refuge to surrendering soldiers.  Anything making it easier to get work permits will help, too. When I applied for a Blue Card in Germany last year, it took about a month, and I needed lots of notarized translations of documents, which are expensive. An H1B visa in USA takes half a year to get.

There are flights into some countries like Armenia, Georgia, Serbia.  Yes, I think the main problem is people don't have a lot of money, and sometimes cannot access the money because of new Russian laws and sanctions.  And rent became 2x-3x more expensive in Erevan. So people are not sure if they can make it. But I am not one of the people who recently left, I think they understand the situation better.

I agree strongly with what you have written. Especially, since in my opinion it is unlikely that there will be a liberal and/or pro-western government in Russia, even if Putin will be replaced.

Do you have any suggestion what an average person in a western country can do? Of course, you can write to your representative that the borders should be opened for Russian emigrants. Unfortunately, I do not know if this is really effective since politicians get probably tons of mail. 

In support of the OP, see below video which shows the humor and culture of Russians and also the  current conditions for protestors.

One could also consider a policy to provide to any Russian who has a STEM PhD (or similar work experience) a long-term visa. Such a visa could eventually lead to permanent residency. I don't know if this has a realistic chance of becoming law. Maybe in Canada, a country that's unusually friendly to immigration?

The UK's Global Talent Visa should cover this. I just did a dry run application as a Russian and it didn't flag me. Supposedly a 3 week response time, which is unusually good I'm afraid.

That wasn't my understanding of it:

You can usually only apply for a Global Talent visa if you have successfully applied for an endorsement to prove that you are a leader or potential leader.

You can apply for the visa without an endorsement if you’ve won an eligible award.

https://www.gov.uk/global-talent

Hmm. There was some noise about an uncapped global scientist thing. Maybe they changed the criteria since. 

It says right there on the page it’s for “top scientists”. That’s very different from anyone with a PhD.

That pattern-matches to inflated job marketing talk, which I always mentally downgrade by an order of magnitude. But maybe wrongly here.

I don’t think there’s that’s as much ambiguity here as you’re making out. You can just look up the conditions of the visa. It would be interesting to see a random sample of people who received the visa though.

Thank you for all of your work. I think your post is really well written and covers many considerations. 

Curated and popular this week
Paul Present
 ·  · 28m read
 · 
Note: I am not a malaria expert. This is my best-faith attempt at answering a question that was bothering me, but this field is a large and complex field, and I’ve almost certainly misunderstood something somewhere along the way. Summary While the world made incredible progress in reducing malaria cases from 2000 to 2015, the past 10 years have seen malaria cases stop declining and start rising. I investigated potential reasons behind this increase through reading the existing literature and looking at publicly available data, and I identified three key factors explaining the rise: 1. Population Growth: Africa's population has increased by approximately 75% since 2000. This alone explains most of the increase in absolute case numbers, while cases per capita have remained relatively flat since 2015. 2. Stagnant Funding: After rapid growth starting in 2000, funding for malaria prevention plateaued around 2010. 3. Insecticide Resistance: Mosquitoes have become increasingly resistant to the insecticides used in bednets over the past 20 years. This has made older models of bednets less effective, although they still have some effect. Newer models of bednets developed in response to insecticide resistance are more effective but still not widely deployed.  I very crudely estimate that without any of these factors, there would be 55% fewer malaria cases in the world than what we see today. I think all three of these factors are roughly equally important in explaining the difference.  Alternative explanations like removal of PFAS, climate change, or invasive mosquito species don't appear to be major contributors.  Overall this investigation made me more convinced that bednets are an effective global health intervention.  Introduction In 2015, malaria rates were down, and EAs were celebrating. Giving What We Can posted this incredible gif showing the decrease in malaria cases across Africa since 2000: Giving What We Can said that > The reduction in malaria has be
Ronen Bar
 ·  · 10m read
 · 
"Part one of our challenge is to solve the technical alignment problem, and that’s what everybody focuses on, but part two is: to whose values do you align the system once you’re capable of doing that, and that may turn out to be an even harder problem", Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO (Link).  In this post, I argue that: 1. "To whose values do you align the system" is a critically neglected space I termed “Moral Alignment.” Only a few organizations work for non-humans in this field, with a total budget of 4-5 million USD (not accounting for academic work). The scale of this space couldn’t be any bigger - the intersection between the most revolutionary technology ever and all sentient beings. While tractability remains uncertain, there is some promising positive evidence (See “The Tractability Open Question” section). 2. Given the first point, our movement must attract more resources, talent, and funding to address it. The goal is to value align AI with caring about all sentient beings: humans, animals, and potential future digital minds. In other words, I argue we should invest much more in promoting a sentient-centric AI. The problem What is Moral Alignment? AI alignment focuses on ensuring AI systems act according to human intentions, emphasizing controllability and corrigibility (adaptability to changing human preferences). However, traditional alignment often ignores the ethical implications for all sentient beings. Moral Alignment, as part of the broader AI alignment and AI safety spaces, is a field focused on the values we aim to instill in AI. I argue that our goal should be to ensure AI is a positive force for all sentient beings. Currently, as far as I know, no overarching organization, terms, or community unifies Moral Alignment (MA) as a field with a clear umbrella identity. While specific groups focus individually on animals, humans, or digital minds, such as AI for Animals, which does excellent community-building work around AI and animal welfare while
Max Taylor
 ·  · 9m read
 · 
Many thanks to Constance Li, Rachel Mason, Ronen Bar, Sam Tucker-Davis, and Yip Fai Tse for providing valuable feedback. This post does not necessarily reflect the views of my employer. Artificial General Intelligence (basically, ‘AI that is as good as, or better than, humans at most intellectual tasks’) seems increasingly likely to be developed in the next 5-10 years. As others have written, this has major implications for EA priorities, including animal advocacy, but it’s hard to know how this should shape our strategy. This post sets out a few starting points and I’m really interested in hearing others’ ideas, even if they’re very uncertain and half-baked. Is AGI coming in the next 5-10 years? This is very well covered elsewhere but basically it looks increasingly likely, e.g.: * The Metaculus and Manifold forecasting platforms predict we’ll see AGI in 2030 and 2031, respectively. * The heads of Anthropic and OpenAI think we’ll see it by 2027 and 2035, respectively. * A 2024 survey of AI researchers put a 50% chance of AGI by 2047, but this is 13 years earlier than predicted in the 2023 version of the survey. * These predictions seem feasible given the explosive rate of change we’ve been seeing in computing power available to models, algorithmic efficiencies, and actual model performance (e.g., look at how far Large Language Models and AI image generators have come just in the last three years). * Based on this, organisations (both new ones, like Forethought, and existing ones, like 80,000 Hours) are taking the prospect of near-term AGI increasingly seriously. What could AGI mean for animals? AGI’s implications for animals depend heavily on who controls the AGI models. For example: * AGI might be controlled by a handful of AI companies and/or governments, either in alliance or in competition. * For example, maybe two government-owned companies separately develop AGI then restrict others from developing it. * These actors’ use of AGI might be dr