I've just launched the Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus, in partnership with The Unjournal and @Sentient Futures. The tournament is built on a simple idea: the animal movement is regularly makes strategic decisions on which organisations to fund, which campaigns to push, and which emerging issues to prioritise. These decisions are more informed when there's a well-calibrated, public forecast to draw on when there is limited research and evidence. Questions were crowdsourced from people in strategic positions across the advocacy community, with one filter: could a forecast on this actually change a key decision? The 16 questions (more coming) cover corporate welfare commitments, alternative protein regulation, and emerging frontiers like octopus farming and how animal welfare might (or might not) show up in frontier AI systems.
You don't need to be an animal advocate to forecast on the questions - the more diverse the forecaster base, the better.
$3,400 prize pool is on offer!