The following report is a part of ongoing research by Charity Entrepreneurship looking into corporate outreach as a potential approach used to implement asks.
The full report and answers to the research questions are available for download here.
If most corporations tend to follow through with their corporate social responsibility pledges, starting a new charity that campaigns for welfare improvements for animals would be one of the highest impact opportunities out there. But what if only a tiny fraction do? Then, it might not be worth investing in. This is why one of the key crucial considerations, when considering the launch of a new corporate outreach campaign, is the ability to enforce the pledges and ensure that companies follow through on their commitments to improve animal welfare. There are some concerns that commitments have been broken, or will be, and therefore the impact of past campaigns is significantly reduced. To estimate the expected value of launching a new corporate campaign, we need to first estimate the probability of companies following through with their commitments . We approached answering this question using a cluster approach, looking at the issue using many different sources of evidence: historical evidence, industry expert opinions, animal advocacy and effective altruism expert opinions, and studies. Below, we offer a summary of conclusions from this research. The color coding represents the type of update each group of evidence gave us. Green denotes a generally positive update (making us more confident in the odds of corporate follow through), yellow stands for a neutral update, orange for a minor negative update, and red for a more negative update. Gray is where information was unavailable. Taking into account all the evidence, I estimated that on average ~44% of companies will follow through on the welfare commitments.
Research findings can be found in the full report.
Using the principle of indifference and assigning equal probability to all possible distributions of the follow-through rate, in response to evidence presented above, I came to the following conclusion about the probability distribution of % of companies that will follow-through:
A 39% - 50% confidence interval is going to be used to model cost-effectiveness of launching another corporate campaign. It is not an estimate about effectiveness of past corporate campaigns on egg-laying hens and broilers issues!
The full model can we seen here. You can copy it and insert your inputs on the weight of evidence and strength of direction of a given parameter.