Personally I think people get the worry about demographic collapse a little backwards. Yes, population decline is plausibly bad for a variety of economic reasons. But I think that the bigger issue is that population decline is a symptom of society's problems, rather than a source of them. I think demographic decline is probably caused by things like the economic/technological "great stagnation", assorted cultural changes too numerous to mention, increasing sclerosis and inertia of political institutions, and the disempowerment of young people due to factors like those (plus, importantly, high housing prices and high childcare/education prices). Although of course it is hard to be sure.
I think people can sense that demographic decline is an indicator of an unhealthy society, and I think that focusing on "how do we raise birhrates" is indeed one good concrete way of identifying ways to make society healthier. But I don't think it's the low birthrates themselves that are the problem -- it's the stuff causing the low birthrates that is the problem.
I agree to your comment that reasons for the population decline are many and hard to parse. It is just that we never had this issue before, with the rise of alternative actions where we can derive the meaning of life now seemingly trumping the conventional or literal one - having kids (enabling life on earth).....But yeah, it is a very real concern where the decline in population will drastically alter the capacity of us to continue the growth we had since the 1950s..
I'm curious about the specific global population numbers that you predict by, say, 2050, and how you calculated them or what your source is. The numbers I'm familiar with predict a slowing of growth, with stability around 10 billion in 2050 with an eventual 11 billion by 2100. According to the linked United Nations article, half the continued growth is expected in 9 countries, including the US.
I recall reading that US population growth can be attributed almost solely to migration, including a flow of immigrants from Mexico and maybe Cuba, but looking at the most recent census data, I'm surprised to see that during the last decade there was slow population growth in the US. This seems to draw UN expectations into doubt. A suggestion is that Trump's policies drew down immigration rates and Biden has not done much to pick them back up. Do you think that anti-immigration trend could continue past the Biden administration? I assume you think it should not continue.
As far as US population growth, we could certainly accept more immigrants into the country, there was such an opportunity during the Trump administration, but it was rejected by the administration. What are compelling reasons, if any,to accept flows of migrants that are not already technically trained, highly educated, or immediately employable? President Trump infamously suggested that we should seek immigrants from Norway. He objected to some nations as a source of migrants in a way that could be taken as racist. However, immigration is commonly evaluated on whether migrants could contribute to society economically or financially. What are your ideas for immigration policy in the case of migrants seeking to live in the US to escape poverty, political persecution, or environmental disaster?
I agree with you about the importance of education to the country's population, and wonder what level of investment, compared to today, you think would be useful for tomorrow's adults, and furthermore, what sort of jobs you think will be most common in 20-30 years that will accept a larger population. What sorts of jobs in what ranges of numbers do you envision?
I asked a number of questions, but answer whichever you would like. I'm looking to become reoriented to the details of population growth in developed countries. Thank you.
Thank you for your effort to outlining your ideas and questions in Immigration and yeah I will try to stretch myself into these inquiries of yours....
US is the land of immigrants, people aspiring for a better life had come to build the dreams they wanted for themselves and for their families. I do not see immigration in US or its stagnation a longterm issue - yet what I see that may affect this is the wild politics that you US have - as self biases of government officials is first served than the people themselves. I am an outsider and just observing - anyone correct me if you see this observation inaccurate. I am pro immigration as long as it's parameterized with structure and an immersion scheme so common barriers like wealth, language, religious beliefs and education backgrounds can be eliminated for newly absorbed immigrants.
The level of investment for education for the youth (future adults)? if I were to reorganize how we teach people - it should be mandatory to incorporate art, music, dance, martial arts, mindfulness and psychology as the base layer for any student. Computer science and Math are great ones too. Then other fields should be optional after teaching kids a better foundation on how the world really works - choosing a certain field can be even done while training on the job. Most common jobs if we do not mess the stability of the world in the next 30 years will be content creators and programmers. Construction and mechanical work is still in play. My wild bet as a new thing is robotics and space exploration.
Don't hesitate to ask questions, add more if you wish so.
In recent years, there has been a decline in the number of births worldwide. This trend is especially evident in developed countries, where the average fertility rate has been below the replacement level for some time. There are a number of reasons why people are choosing to have fewer children, or none at all. For one thing, population growth has slowed down in many parts of the world, so there is less pressure to have large families. In addition, women are now more likely to pursue careers and delay motherhood, and the costs of raising children have risen significantly. As a result of these trends, the global population is projected to start declining in the coming decades. Some people see this as a cause for concern, but others believe that it could ultimately lead to a more sustainable future.
How impactful is population decline?
The population is shrinking. That's the bad news. The good news is that there are fewer of us to go around, so we can all have a bigger slice of the pie. But seriously, population decline is no laughing matter. It can have a profound and negative impact on the future. Fewer people mean fewer taxpayers to support social programs like healthcare and education. It also means a smaller labor force to drive economic growth. In addition, population decline can lead to higher housing costs and a decline in property values. So while it may seem like population decline is good news for those of us who are already here, it's actually a cause for concern. We need to find ways to reverse this trend before it's too late.
Possible Solutions?
There are a number of steps that can be taken to reverse the trend here are some:
Countries can encourage higher birth rates through financial incentives or more generous parental leave policies. In order to encourage couples to have more children, some countries have implemented financial incentives or more generous parental leave policies. For example, France offers a "baby bonus" of up to $1,000 per child, and Sweden provides up to 16 months of paid parental leave. These policies have helped to increase the birth rate in both countries, and other countries are likely to follow suit in the years ahead.
They can also make it easier for immigrants to settle in and become productive citizens. As many developed countries are facing population decline, they are increasingly turning to immigrants to help sustain their economies. However, these countries often make it difficult for immigrants to settle in and become productive citizens. One way to address this issue is to provide more support and resources for immigrants during the transition period. This could include things like language classes, job training, and financial assistance. Additionally, it would be helpful to create more opportunities for social and economic mobility. This would allow immigrants to fully participate in society and contribute their skills and talents. By making it easier for immigrants to settle in and become productive citizens, countries can help ensure a bright future for themselves.
Countries can invest in education and job training programs to make sure that their citizens have the skills needed to compete in the global economy. In today's global economy, it is increasingly important for countries to invest in education and job training programs to make sure that their citizens have the skills needed to compete. population decline and the rise of automation are making it difficult for many people to find work, and as a result, many countries are facing a brain drain as their best and brightest citizens leave in search of opportunities elsewhere. However, by investing in programs that provide their citizens with the skills they need to succeed, countries can ensure that their population remains employable and help to provide a stability and prosperity. In today's increasingly connected world, no country can afford to be left behind.
By taking these steps, countries can begin to turn the tide of population decline.
The next generations carrying the torch
As any parent knows, children are our hope for the future. They are the ones who will grow up to lead the world, and it is our responsibility to prepare them for that role. But what many people don't realize is that children are also key to population stability. As the population of developed countries continues to decline, we will increasingly rely on the next generation to maintain our current standard of living. Without children, we would be facing a population collapse. That's why it's so important to ensure that every child is given the opportunity to succeed. We need to invest in their education and their future, so that they can carry the torch for humanity.
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Personally I think people get the worry about demographic collapse a little backwards. Yes, population decline is plausibly bad for a variety of economic reasons. But I think that the bigger issue is that population decline is a symptom of society's problems, rather than a source of them. I think demographic decline is probably caused by things like the economic/technological "great stagnation", assorted cultural changes too numerous to mention, increasing sclerosis and inertia of political institutions, and the disempowerment of young people due to factors like those (plus, importantly, high housing prices and high childcare/education prices). Although of course it is hard to be sure.
I think people can sense that demographic decline is an indicator of an unhealthy society, and I think that focusing on "how do we raise birhrates" is indeed one good concrete way of identifying ways to make society healthier. But I don't think it's the low birthrates themselves that are the problem -- it's the stuff causing the low birthrates that is the problem.
I agree to your comment that reasons for the population decline are many and hard to parse. It is just that we never had this issue before, with the rise of alternative actions where we can derive the meaning of life now seemingly trumping the conventional or literal one - having kids (enabling life on earth).....But yeah, it is a very real concern where the decline in population will drastically alter the capacity of us to continue the growth we had since the 1950s..