Michael Nielsen has a beautiful new essay on moral imagination: the ability humans have to 'develop and transmit new notions of good action, indeed, even new kinds of good'.
As examples, he gives:
* Hammurabi's creation of a code of laws (in 1754 BCE) and his justification of his rule not in terms of divine or hereditary right, but by the delivery of justice to his citizens.
* St Gregory of Nyssa's...
Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
Trying to craft an answer, may update this as I think some more. Of course, this answer is crafted from my perspective on what is 'best'. You will probably want to consult with your friend as to what they value (as well as discussing this issue with them to help them carefully consider their priorities.)
MSF
I suspect that MSF is as good as best for the institutional 'laying the groundwork' to permit relief in these specific disaster cases, but I don't have hard evidence. (E.g., latest GiveWell evaluation of MSF in 2012.)
Note that (I recall reading discussions of) the work of an organization like MSF is particularly hard to analyze with a GiveWell-style CEA, both because:
... they do many things and it's hard to isolate costs or earmark funds specific activities, and because
... much of their work has harder-to-immediately-measure benefits, such as providing an environment to permit further aid and an international presence, and (maybe) building institutions.
That's not to say we shouldn't try to measure this; I think we should!
Open Philanthropy's choices
I defer to the careful judgment and research of Open Phil, who recently gave :
Regular malnutrition is not the same thing as famine relief, I think, but there may be some overlap.
This is why we need rigorous evaluation of a wider set of charities/causes
(One of my hobby horses)
As I've argued before, the case you present offers an example of one reason (of several reasons) why we should fund and do systematic measurement and evaluation of 'harder to evaluate' charities and causes.
I hope that the use of Fermi estimation involving meta-analysis of existing (limited evidence, calibrated judgment where evidence is lacking, quantified uncertainty, and MonteCarlo estimation will enable this more. See Hazelfire/QURI work here. I'm also hope that Sogive can move in this direction. I'm also interested in fostering multiple independent evaluations of the same programs and charities to get a sense of our reliability here.