TLDR: Take the population ethics quiz here: https://mdickens.me/pop-ethics/
Population ethics is an oft-overlooked subfield within ethics. Many people hold views that they don't realize contradict each other, or that have strange implications that they wouldn't endorse if they thought about it more.
Not just that—population ethics is a BIG DEAL. A lot of ethical decisions hinge on how you think about changes in future populations....
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
Trying to craft an answer, may update this as I think some more. Of course, this answer is crafted from my perspective on what is 'best'. You will probably want to consult with your friend as to what they value (as well as discussing this issue with them to help them carefully consider their priorities.)
MSF
I suspect that MSF is as good as best for the institutional 'laying the groundwork' to permit relief in these specific disaster cases, but I don't have hard evidence. (E.g., latest GiveWell evaluation of MSF in 2012.)
Note that (I recall reading discussions of) the work of an organization like MSF is particularly hard to analyze with a GiveWell-style CEA, both because:
... they do many things and it's hard to isolate costs or earmark funds specific activities, and because
... much of their work has harder-to-immediately-measure benefits, such as providing an environment to permit further aid and an international presence, and (maybe) building institutions.
That's not to say we shouldn't try to measure this; I think we should!
Open Philanthropy's choices
I defer to the careful judgment and research of Open Phil, who recently gave :
Regular malnutrition is not the same thing as famine relief, I think, but there may be some overlap.
This is why we need rigorous evaluation of a wider set of charities/causes
(One of my hobby horses)
As I've argued before, the case you present offers an example of one reason (of several reasons) why we should fund and do systematic measurement and evaluation of 'harder to evaluate' charities and causes.
I hope that the use of Fermi estimation involving meta-analysis of existing (limited evidence, calibrated judgment where evidence is lacking, quantified uncertainty, and MonteCarlo estimation will enable this more. See Hazelfire/QURI work here. I'm also hope that Sogive can move in this direction. I'm also interested in fostering multiple independent evaluations of the same programs and charities to get a sense of our reliability here.