Cross-posted from my blog.
You might hear stories of someone who influenced someone else to be vegan or to donate 100 dollars and then claimed to have caused X animal lives to be saved or $100 to be donated, which are very good things indeed. But the person who donated that $100 can also claim responsibility for donating that money, because they were an integral step in the outcome, without which the money wouldn’t have been donated.
But if both parties are claiming full responsibility for causing $100 to be donated, shouldn’t that imply that $200 was donated? So who can claim responsibility here? Are they both equally responsible? Is it reasonable to say that they were both fully responsible after all? Or is it, as many things are in the real world, much more complicated than that? This is important if we, as individuals and organisations interested in maximising impact, are going to be rigorous about measuring the impact of individuals.
A friend once told me a story that poses an ethical riddle. It goes like this:
A married woman had been growing bored. Her husband wasn’t paying her attention anymore, and had stopped treating her well. She started sneaking away at night to go and sleep with other men across the river from her house. There was a bridge but she took the ferry to reduce the risk of being seen. One night, she went across the river but the man whom she had arranged to sleep with didn’t show. She went back to the ferry, but the boat master had heard of what the woman was doing from a friend and didn’t want to ferry her anymore. The woman, desperate, went across the bridge, where a drunken man killed her in a fit of rage. Whose fault was it that the woman died?
Another, more complicated riddle is presented:
There were four men in a military camp in the middle of the desert. Three of them hated the fourth, John, and wanted to kill him, but they wanted it to look like an accident. One day, when it was John’s turn to go on patrol, one of the others took his chance and put poison in John’s water flask. A second soldier, not knowing what the first had done, poured out John’s water and replaced it with sand. The third then came and poked small holes in the bottle so its contents would slowly leak out. When John was halfway through his patrol and looked for a drink, he realised his flask was empty, and he died of thirst. Who killed John?
In safety, there is a concept known as the ‘root cause’. For example, take the Air France Flight 4590 in 2000 which involved a Concorde plane outside Charles de Gaulle International Airport in France. The plane crashed, killing all crew and passengers, and some bystanders on the ground. Was it the crew’s fault? No, because the plane’s engine had caught fire shortly before take-off. So was it the fault of the engine manufacturers?
No, as it was revealed that a tyre had ruptured during take-off which hit the fuel tank, which resulted in the flame. This in turn was caused by a piece of metal found on the runway, which had fallen off of another airplane that day. This led back to the operator who had replaced that particular piece of metal, who had incorrectly installed the piece. This was interpreted as the root and primary cause of the accident.
But even so we can go back further. Someone must have trained this operator – did they do a bad job? Is it the fault of the management of that company for not putting the correct practices in place to eliminate the occurrence of such events? Maybe someone had just upset the operator and he wasn’t thinking straight.
If we go back to our first example and apply the root cause logic, that suggests that the woman died because of her husband. But this is an uncomfortable result, as the one who is most at fault is surely the man who actually killed her. Some might argue that the root cause is really just the drunken man, but it has to be said that all individuals in that story played an integral part in the woman’s death.
It might even be argued that the man was not thinking straight. What if he was drugged through no fault of his own? To be clear here, I don’t mean to imply that each player in this chain of events should be held responsible, or indeed be ‘guilty’, but they did play an unknowing role.
Bringing this all back to the original question, I confess I don’t have an answer. But I’m convinced that the answer isn’t as simple as we think, and if we want to be rigorous about measuring the impact that individuals have through an action or over their life, we should consider this further. At the very least, we should define very clearly what we mean when we say “I/we caused $100 to be donated.”
Looking forward to hearing comments.
I think we have to consider two things here:
a) What is the relevant units that you attribute impact to?
b) Why is it relevant to measure impact of past performance in the first place?
To clarify these questions, consider the following example. Suppose that country C has 349 members of parliament (MPs), elected in a UK-style first-past-the-post system. Now compare two scenarios:
1) One party, A, gets 175 MPs, whereas the other, B, gets 174 MPs 2) A gets 176 MPs and the other 173 MPs.
Now suppose that a win for A is worth 1 trillion dollars. Then in scenario 1), each A MP can claim to have caused 1 trillion dollars for C, in the sense that if they hadn't won their race against their specific B opponent, C would have lost 1 trillion dollars. In scenario 2), however, none of them can claim to have had any impact at all, in that sense, because even if they had lost their race, A would have won.
Now firstly, note that this analysis is heavily dependent on the unit of impact attribution being individual MPs. Suppose that all but one consituencies had two MPs rather than one. In that case, the appropriate unit of impact attribution rather becomes these pairs of MPs, in which case each pair of A MPs actually did cause a 1 dollars gain (since if it weren't for them, A would have lost 174-175).
Now I think that it can be that it's not always obvious what the appropriate unit of impact attribution is (even though it might have been in the scenarios involving MPs). Suppose, e.g., that an EA org, according to a certain analysis, has caused 100 000 dollars to be moved to cost-effective charities, but that this is all due to a certain individual. Why are we then to attribute this impact to the EA org, rather than the individual? (This question obviously becomes all the more important if the individual subsequently has left the organisation.) Or conversely, why are we to attribute it to the EA org, rather than to the EA movement as a whole? (It might be that some organisations grow more thanks to the general momentum of the EA movement than thanks to any effort of their own.) Why is the EA org the appropriate level of analysis? (Not saying it isn't, but that it is something that needs to be explicitly argued for.)
Let us turn to question b), and settle, for the sake of the argument, that individual MP is the appropriate unit of impact attribution. This means that in 1), each individual MP has had an enormous impact, whereas in 2), they had no impact whatsoever. Seemingly, we have very strong reasons to donate to each individual MP is 1), but very weak reasons in 2). Can this be right, given how similar the cases are?
No, it can't, the reason being that 2) give you approximately as strong reasons as 1) to believe that the next election will be a close race as well. For, to answer question a), the ultimate point of this whole impact exercice is not to evaluate past performance, but to learn how to maximise the expected impact of future donations. In a sense, the MPs were "morally lucky" in 1), and we shouldn't take luck into account when we're thinking of where to donate (since donations should be future-facing, and there is by definition no reason to believe that we will continue to be lucky).
I think that at least part of the answer regarding the first question lies in the answer to this second question. To the extent that we want to assess past impact at all, we want to choose a level of impact attribution analysis that allows us to assess the expected impact of future donations accurately.