The proportion of long-termists in effective altruism who are expressing confident convictions that the timeline for smarter-than-human AI is much shorter than has previously been predicted been increasing at an accelerating rate in the last year. This appears to be a shift in perspective among several hundred long-termists. Among the dozens I've read opinions from, numbers are almost never provided.
I don't check the platforms for the best AI forecasting or whatever much, so maybe there are models or predictions that make clear the quantitative estimates for these timelines. Please comment or answer with such a resource if you're aware of one.
Otherwise, based on the way different people are talking about it, I wouldn't be surprised if they thought the timeline is 10-20 years, or 5-10 years, or even 2-3 years. I've talked to others who are also concerned and open-minded to this or that short AI timeline but haven't done the research themselves yet, or had much opportunity to learn from those who have. We want to understand better but basic information crucial to understanding more like numbers for different models or timelines aren't being presented. We want to know and need to know help better. What are the numbers?