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Blathering talk surrounds us, but I will take no part in it. My word is my bet; I will always put my money where my mouth is. When challenged, I will bet on my words, refine them, or recant. When no one is present to challenge me, I will weigh my words and thoughts as if my fellow oath-takers were listening.

—Caplan's The Bettor's Oath

George Mason University economics professor Bryan Caplan is a proponent of betting—as an epistemic tool and as an accountability mechanism. He maintains a public inventory of wagers detailing a (for now) unbroken winning streak reaching back nearly two decades. 

Metaculus's new Bryan Caplan Collection is a question series where you can forecast the outcomes of Caplan's bets on topics like explosive economic growth from AI, India's fertility rate, climate change, and more.

Learn more and start forecasting

We're grateful to Bryan Caplan for his involvement in this series. 




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