Suppose we're sometime in the (near-ish) future. The longtermist project hasn't fulfilled 2020's expectations. Where did we go wrong? What scenarios (and with what probabilities) may have lead to this?
I hope this question isn't strictly isomorphic to asking about objections to long-termism.
What could you observe that would cause you to think that longtermism is wrong? (I ask out of interest; I think it's a subtle question.)
What about a scenario where long-termism turns out to be right, but there is some sort of community-level value drift which results in long-term cause areas becoming neglected, perhaps as a result of the community growing too quickly or some intra-community interest groups becoming too powerful? I wouldn't say this is very likely (maybe 5%), but we should consider the base rate of this type of thing happening.
I realise that this outcome might be subsumed in the the points raised above. Specifically, it might be that instead of directly trying to int... (read more)
Great comment. I count only 65 percentage points - is the other third "something else happened"?
Or were you not conditioning on long-termist failure? (That would be scary.)