I am asking this question to understand how an ideal EA would employ EA ideas, tools, and other frameworks practically - for instance, how would an ideal EA use the Scale, Neglectedness & Tractability arguments here? What about long-termism? Given the frameworks used, would this EA prioritize this cause over other causes?
I think thought experiments like this could help us properly explain to newcomers the intricacies of the EA thought process. If there are other thought experiments like this that serve the same purpose, do post those in your answer.
Here are some assumptions you are allowed to make:
-
Assume that although you are living before 07-08, EA concepts and ideas are where they are at right now. For instance, by 07-08, EAs already think AI & GCRs are high priority and that Givewell has done all of the mistakes they quote here and that 80k hours has already realized that leading with Earning to give was a bad idea and so on.
-
Assume the EA in this scenario is actually well aware of the major ideas of EA: say they took the Stanford Introductory fellowship or they might even be running a local EA group.
-
Assume the EA has a personal fit to help with this problem: say they are in the final year of their Econ PhD. But remember that they can direct their career towards other causes too.
-
Also assume that this is not about hunting and finding Cause X: One fine night before 07-08, God descended into the EA's bedroom and whispered in their ear, "You need to take a look at the US housing market". But God left without telling that there will be a crisis in 07-08 because of it or what exactly to look at in that market - God is too active on FB and just got distracted. You can also think that the EA is one of the protagonists at the beginning of the movie 'The Big Short" (the movie starts at '05).
If you are making additional assumptions then mention them in your answer.
What would it have taken to do something about this crisis in the first place? Back in 2008, central bankers were under the assumption that the theory of central banking was completely worked out. Academics were mostly talking about details (tweaking the tailor rule basically).
The theory of central banking is already centuries old. What would it have taken for a random individual to overturn that establishment? Including the culture and all the institutional interests of banks etc? Are we sure that no one was trying to do exactly that, anyway?
It seems to me that it would have taken a major crisis to change anything, and that's exactly what happened. And now there are all kinds of regulations being implemented for posting collateral around swaps and stuff. It seems that regulators are fixing the issues as they come up (making the system antifragile), and I don't see how a marginal young naive EA would have the domain knowledge to make a meaningful difference here.
And that goes for most fields. Unless we basically invent the field (like AI Safety) or the strategy (like comparing charities), if the field is sufficiently saturated with smart and motivated people, I don't think EA's have enough domain knowledge to do anything. In most cases it takes decades of work to get anywhere.
Consider this - say the EA figured out the number of people the problem could affect negatively (i.e) the scale. Then even if there is a small probability that the EA could make a difference shouldn't they have just taken it? Also even if the EA couldn't avert the crisis despite their best attempts they still get career capital, right?
Another point to consider - IMHO, EA ideas have a certain dynamic of going against the grain. It challenged the established practices of charitable giving that existed for a long time. So an EA might be inspired by this and i... (read more)