A new study came out today that seems to be a pretty big deal, though it's not my area of expertise. A team of scientists narrowed estimates of climate sensitivity. In The Precipice, Toby Ord notes that uncertainty about things like this increases the probability we should place on such risks. Does anyone know how much this study should lower our credence (if at all)?
Here are the "Key Points" from the study:
● We assess evidence relevant to Earth’s climate sensitivity S: feedback process understanding, and the historical and paleo-climate records.
● All three lines of evidence are difficult to reconcile with S < 2 K, while paleo evidence provides the strongest case against S > 4.5 K. 48
● A Bayesian calculation finds a 66% range of 2.6-3.9 K, which remains within the bounds 2.3-4.5 K under plausible robustness tests.