A mathematical modelling study to estimate:

  • Number of additional lives lost if no vaccines had  been distributed: 14.4 million deaths averted by vaccine distribution, representing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths during the first year of vaccination
  • Additional deaths that could have been averted had the vaccination targets of 20% by COVAX and 40% set by WHO been achieved by the end of 2021: An additional 45% of deaths could have been averted if each country met the COVAX target, and 111% of deaths could have been averted if each country met the WHO target.
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111% of deaths averted?

Yeah it is a little bit of a counter-inuitive presentation. 

Basically of vaccines low income countries did receive in 2021, they  averted 180 300 (171 400–188 900) deaths. 

If LIC had achieved the WHO target of 40% vaccination rate, they would have averted an additional 200 000 (187 900–211 900) deaths

200 000/ 180 300 = 111%