Metaculus

A video introduction to Metaculus is also available^[4].

As of August 2022, Metaculus has received $5.6 million in grants from Open Philanthropy,^[4]5] and over $300,000 from Effective Altruism Funds.^[5]6]

1. ^{^}

   Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.

2. ^{^}

   Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.

3. ^{^}

   Metaculus, Tutorials

4. ^{^}

   Brook, Victoria (2022), Metaculus Tutorial, Loom

5. ^{^}

   Open Philanthropy (2022) Grants database: Metaculus, Open Philanthropy.

6. ^{^}

   Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund (2021) May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund grants, Effective Altruism Funds, August.

The official Metaculus tutorials (link below)^[3] are suitable for beginners as a way to introduce forecasting, probability distributions, and a basic understanding of how to behave under uncertainty. 

As of August 2022, Metaculus has received $5.6 million in grants from Open Philanthropy,^[3]4] and over $300,000 from Effective Altruism Funds.^[4]5]

1. ^{^}

   Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.

2. ^{^}

   Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.

3. ^{^}

   Metaculus, Tutorials

4. ^{^}

   Open Philanthropy (2022) Grants database: Metaculus, Open Philanthropy.

5. ^{^}

   Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund (2021) May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund grants, Effective Altruism Funds, August.

The official Metaculus tutorials (link below) are suitable for beginners as a way to introduce forecasting, probability distributions, and a basic understanding of how to behave under uncertainty. 

Metaculus official tutorials

Related entries

AI forecasting | Forecasting | Prediction markets | Manifold markets

Metaculus. Official website. official website

Apply for a job.

 Related entries

AI forecasting | Forecasting | Prediction markets | Manifold markets

Related entries

AI forecasting | Forecasting | Prediction markets | Manifold markets

Related entries 

AI forecasting | Forecasting | Prediction markets | Manifold markets

Tutorials

The official Metaculus tutorials are suitable for beginners as a way to introduce forecasting, probability distributions, and a basic understanding of how to behave under uncertainty. 

Tutorial #1 is over-explaining for those with a basic understanding of the forecasting, but still a good introduction to using Metaculus specifically. For those familiar with forecasting, tutorials #2 and #3 are more useful as a (small) amount of calibration practice and building familiarity with the Metaculus interface. 

AI forecasting | forecastingForecasting | predictionPrediction markets | Manifold markets

As of JulyAugust 2022, Metaculus has received over $300,000$5.6 million in grants from Effective Altruism FundsOpen Philanthropy,^[3] and $100,over $300,000 from Open PhilanthropyEffective Altruism Funds.^[4]

1. ^{^}

   Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.

2. ^{^}

   Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.

3. ^{^}

   Open Philanthropy (2022) Grants database: Metaculus, Open Philanthropy.

4. ^{^}

   Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund (2021) May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund grants, Effective Altruism Funds, August.

5. ^{^}

   Open Philanthropy (2022) Grants database: Metaculus, Open Philanthropy

Funding

As of July 2022, Metaculus has received over $300,000 in grants from Effective Altruism Funds,^[3] and $100,000 from Open Philanthropy.^[4]

1. ^{^}

   Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.

2. ^{^}

   Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.

3. ^{^}

   Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund (2021) May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund grants, Effective Altruism Funds, August.

4. ^{^}

   Open Philanthropy (2022) Grants database: Metaculus, Open Philanthropy

Apply for a job.