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Parent Topic: Forecasting

Manifold Markets is a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation. 


A video tutorial is also available[1].

Mana (M$) is the currency of Manifold. Users start with M$500 for free. M$ can be redeemed as a charitable donation at M$100:$1 or purchased at the same exchange rate

Markets are the unit of prediction on Manifold. Creating a market costs M$50, which is then used as a liquidity pool to allow users to trade on the market.

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'[2]). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Note that you can embed Manifold Markets in foum posts and wiki entries!


Here's an example market[2]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

Below, we've spent M$10 in favour. Because the market is at 20%, this buys us 53 YES shares. If the market resolves yes, we'll net back M$53 for our M$10 investment:

We can also click on the title to see more information, make larger bets, and sell our shares (at their current price as determined by the market's aggregate bet):


As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,[3] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[4]


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Posts tagged Manifold Markets