Note: the visualization of previews is sometimes a bit wonky for me: it is shown over the link text which makes it hard to see what I was hovering over or quickly hover over adjacent links as in the beginning of this post. Also the box is slightly too small, showing an awkward scroll bar.
This lets you bet on yes/no questions without leaving EA forum! You do need to be logged into Manifold, otherwise when you try to bet it will first bring you to a screen to log in via your google account.
How to embed a market
Just go the market (or create one), copy the link, and paste it in the editor. It will automatically turn into an embed like the one above.
Michael Nielsen has a beautiful new essay on moral imagination: the ability humans have to 'develop and transmit new notions of good action, indeed, even new kinds of good'.
As examples, he gives:
* Hammurabi's creation of a code of laws (in 1754 BCE) and his justification of his rule not in terms of divine or hereditary right, but by the delivery of justice to his citizens.
* St Gregory of Nyssa's...
Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
love this, thanks for your work