On cluelessness, I would add

• Tomasik, Charity cost-effectiveness in an uncertain world
• Bostrom, Crucial Considerations and wise philanthropy
• Christiano, We can probably influence the far future

On epistemic modesty:

• Finney, Philosophical majoritarianism
• Aaronson, Common knowledge and Aumann’s agreement theorem

Thanks for this, and for your other reading lists! Several of these links are new to me, and I expect to gradually work through these lists over a few weeks.

I also previously made a collection of discussions of epistemic modesty, "rationalist/EA exceptionalism", and similar (but not cluelessness) on LessWrong. Here are the things from that list that aren't here or in Pablo's comment:

• Epistemic learned helplessness - Scott Alexander, 2019
• AI, global coordination, and epistemic humility - Jaan Tallinn, 2018
• From memory, I think a decent amount of Rationality: A-Z by Eliezer Yudkowsky is relevant
• Somewhat less relevant/substantial:
  • This comment/question - me, 2020
  • Naming Beliefs - Hal Finney, 2008
• Likely relevant, but I'm not yet sure how relevant as I haven't yet read it:
  • Are Disagreements Honest? - Cowen & Hanson, 2004
  • Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes - Robin Hanson, 2006
  • Aumann's agreement theorem - Wikipedia

On cluelessness, I'd just note that I thought many of the comments on the EA Forum crosspost of Mogensen's paper were interesting too.