Long-range forecasting

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Goth, Aidan &Aidan, Stephen Clare (2020)& Christian Ruhl (2022) Dr.Professor Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research on improving judgments of existential risk, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021."March 8.

BibliographyFurther reading

Should this tag be applied to posts that contain (links to) multiple thoughtful long-range forecasts but don't explicitly discuss long-range forecasting as distinct from forecasting in general? E.g., did it make sense for me to apply it to this post

(I say "thoughtful" as a rough way of ruling out cases in which someone just includes a few quick numbers merely to try to give a clearer sense of their views, or something.)

I think LessWrong have separate tags for posts about forecasting and posts that contain forecasts. Perhaps we should do the same?

4Pablo1y
This is a general problem: for many entries, posts can be potentially relevant by virtue of either discussing the topic of the entry or exemplifying the phenomenon the entry describes. So we probably want to think about possible general ways to deal with this problem rather than solutions for this specific instance. Still, it seems fine to discuss that here. I don't think I have any insights to offer off the top of my head, but will try to think about this a bit more later.
2Pablo1y
Further to my previous message: What do you think about creating a long-range forecasts tag for posts that contain such forecasts, and to reserve long-range forecasting for posts that discuss the phenomenon? I don't have a clear enough sense of how this problem manifests itself in other articles, so I'm not proposing any general solution for the time being. But this seems like an adequate way to address this particular manifestation.
2MichaelA1y
Yeah, I think that that'd work for this. Or maybe to avoid proliferation of tags, we should have forecasting and forecasts, and then just long-range forecasting, and if people want to say something contains long-range forecasts they can use long-range forecasting along with forecasts.

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.

Goth, Aidan & Stephen Clare (2020) https://founderspledge.com/stories/dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunityDr. Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."

https://founderspledge.com/stories/dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunityThis discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."